Always Exuberant

Who is providing arms to Gaddafi.. er Kadhafi.. em Qaddafi..(whatever it is)..!!??

2011-07-21T17:48:00.006+05:30

Who is providing arms to Libya's Gaddafi.

Here we will not discuss whether Gaddafi is right or wrong... correct or incorrect. already there is huge confusion about the right spell to his name...(pun intended)

We know that NATO and other western countries have been providing support to rebels in Libya (military and non-military).

The rebellion is on since February 15, 2011 with peaceful protests and then culminating into full fledged armed rebellion.

Libya - A small african country with population of around 6.4 Million, GDP of around $74 Billion with Per Capita Income of around $11k.

Libya has armed forces comprising of Libyan Army, Air Force and Libyan Navy.

The total armed forces are around 76,000. Around 50,000 Army, 22,000 Air Force and 8,000 Navy. Considering this, it seems the effective fighting personnel is not more than 70-75 thousand. lets not consider role of navy in the current conflict.

The wikipedia mentions that Libya had around 2000 tanks, 1200 armoured vehicles, 450 SP artillery pieces, 650 towed artillery pieces and 830 multiple rocket launchers. 500 mortars and 450 missiles.

Airforce consists of 450 combat aircrafts (which has been rendered almost useless by Coalition strikes) and 1650 Surface to air missiles. Most of the weaponry is quite old and questionable about its ability to be used in war.

The armed conflict has left air force decapitated that means around 20,000 forces are out. what remains is army of around 50,000 personnel. 2,000 tanks means atleast 5,000 forces used there. which means on ground fighting force is about 45,ooo. In this conflict Gaddafi has lost 2,000 personnel (including death, capture and defections).

Many of the tanks have been destroyed, multi rocket launchers destroyed. hundreds of armoured vehicles destroyed.

On February 26, UN security council imposed an arms embargo on Libya, travel bans and assets freeze on Gaddafi regime. UN on March 17, 2011 passed resolution for no-fly zone over libya to be implemented by France and UK. NATO started intervening militarily around end of March 2011.

Despite all this, War seems to be far from over. Gaddafi forces seem to be gaining ground. At one place rebels gain ground at another place, its the pro-Gaddafi forces gaining ground.

The moot question here is DOES GADDAFI HAVE THE RESOURCES TO ENGAGE CONFLICT FOR SO LONG?

where does this capacity come from? for this we have to look little backwards.

1) US had planned arms sale worth of $ 77 Million in 2010.

2) European nations had arms sale worth of $ 470 Million in 2009 alone.

3) In February 2010, Russia had entered into arms deal with Libya for Euro 1.3 Billion ($ 1.8 Billion).

4) The article here quotes various deals that libya was seeking. It also clearly mentions that in the event of civil war being dragged, do not surprised that these old deals will be revived and ways found to circumvent the arms embargo.

One of the NATO commander had clearly mentioned that they would not be targeting Gaddafi directly but would target the other related areas and personnel.

Does this means that these countries want the conflict to drag on so that their own agendas are fulfilled? Considering that libya having such a small force and conflict continuing for more than 4 months now, have these embargoes already breached? Can somebody confirm that?

India had a limited conflict with Pakistan in 1999 when pakistan intruded into Indian territory at kargil. The war that India waged did cost INR 15 Crore per day (i.e. around $ 4 million Per Day). The total cost of that war was INR 3,500 crores (i.e. around $ 800 Million). during that period around 500 soldiers dead and around 1300 wounded.

Considering these facts, does Gaddafi have the capability to engage a four month war across the country? or put otherwise, from where does the Gaddafi get the resources to continue this war?

Drones - Virtual War

2011-04-24T14:38:00.004+05:30

Recently US decided to use drones for helping(?) Libyan rebels fight against Libyan leader. In another country (Pakistan), there has been huge hue and cry about the use of drones against the militancy. US already uses drones in the border region of AfPak (Afghanistan-Pakistan) against the taliban. These drones have been very successful in their operations. Almost 230 attacks have been made without about 2300 men killed in the attack in drone attacks in Afghanistan.

US had long back Unmanned Arial Vehicles which could fly across pacific non-stop.

Use of drones has taken war to next level. The human intervention is minimised considerably by use of such automated weapons.

US has effectively minimised the human loss (their) in any ongoing wars. Irrespective of their loosening hold on the financial markets, their hold on the military is tightening and quite gripping. Any economy without a strong military support cannot remain powerful.

Use of such automated weapons, US makes sure that, their own human losses are minimised and so the opposition to military intervention by US is brought down.

The opposition to military intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc was due to the human losses in the war. By using such weapons and tools, US will continue interfering in others affairs and at the same time, reducing their risks involved in such operations.

All these operations in various countries act as good ground for live experiments of such weapons/vehicles.

New Start in Indian diplomacy

2010-05-29T15:20:00.003+05:30

Last week India strongly criticized Canada regarding the behavior towards not granting Visa to personnel of Indian defence establishment. The Indian rebuke was strongly worded and called for apology and appropriate rectifying measures from the canadian end.

In rare display of anger by India, this has revealed the stronger side. Such reactions are called for frequently to assert the say of Indian in international interactions.

Indian Foreign Affairs Minister S M Krishna termed the denial of visa to Indian security men as "unacceptable". Further the minister did not rule out the retaliatory action by India. Canadians were expected to address the situation immediately.

Canada, fearing a major diplomatic fall out, said it regretted its immigration official's remarks. IT further has said that its policy for entry of foreigners is under review after series of such incidents.

The Indian gain is that it is now able to assert its views and force countries change their stance. Though it does not appear to be major victory or step, but definitely a step in the right direction of being able to make itself visible and make other take notice of the voices made by us.

India will gain major achievement in asserting itself, when it is able to rough talk with behemoths like UK and China and make them notice India.

Long has been UK changing its immigration policies towards Indians and china resorting to acceptance of stapled Visas.
Nevertheless, this step is in right direction...

Come Back

2010-05-13T23:38:00.002+05:30

Dear All,

Its a long time since this blog has been dormant. But not now... This blog didn't comment on lot of things.. but not now...

This blog is back..

2008-11-14T21:46:00.003+05:30

HEARTY CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYBODY........

India has successfully crash landed moon probe on moon's surface. Further details will be posted soon..

some pics sent by chandrayaan

Biggest international heist in Financial History

2008-09-19T23:01:00.001+05:30

Consider This

## Sometime back ##

(a) US denies Dubai Port company to takeover Us Ports company citing security reasons.

(b) Similar voices are heard against chinese companies too (though no official comment on the same)

# Still Sometime Back #

(a) sub prime crisis surfaces.

(b) Lot of financial institutions on shaky ground

(c) Spate of write off follow

(d) Bear stearn crisis, bail out done..

(e) US financial institutions need huge capital to bolster balance sheets.

(f) Fed action follows, credit & liquidity infused. lot of US financial institutions take capital infusion from chinese, Japanese & gulf (basically dubai based) companies.

(though could not verify which gulf company has invested in US Financial institution)

(g) Dollar depreciates, oil rises, world crisis looming.

*** Now ***

(a) US institutions crash

(b) Freddie & Fannie (biggest home mortgage companies) bailed out...

(c) Lehman follows same path.. US refuses bail out

(d) same fate announced for meryll & AIG but bail out package made.

(e) Oil prices decreasing despite hurricanes & Opec announcing reduction in production

(f) Dollar continues to strengthen against currencies

(g) One analyst finds out that biggest unsecured creditors of lehman brothers are Asian institutions!!!!!! (read this article in "from all street journal" in financial daily "mint")

Why?

What is the best way rob anybody?

Borrow---> Spend---> declare bankruptcy----> lender is finished.

Who is better off?

The person on whom the money is spent.

The person who borrows has nothing to lose as he is where he was earlier

Lender is punished...

Did same thing not happen with US markets? Did US government pull out biggest heist in financial history? Who lost most money in this turmoil? borrowers from those insitutions (i.e. US public who may not pay now to the lehman bros) or the ones who had faith in these institutions and lent them huge monies( Asian & other financial institutions)?

Why is dollar appreciating in such situation?

Indo US Deal Loses its Sheen

2008-09-10T10:47:00.007+05:30

The day the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) granted unique waiver to India to trade in Nuclear related technology & fuel irrespective of its signing of NPT & CTBT, India has made its way to nuclear group through backdoor. India can be termed as only country which is recognised as nuclear weapon state, allowed to trade in nuclear material without signing NPT & CTBT. So technically India while can have all privileges of nuclear weapon state but is not bound by any law as other states are.

There is one more implication of the NSG waiver granted to India. India now does not NEED Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. The main objective of India entering into deal with India was

Able to trade in nuclear material so that we can import uranium for our power plants and the same time divert own uranium for weapons program. ( I had discussed this earlier also)
Able to import dual use technology for our own purpose military & civilian prupose.
Our Military nuclear programme should be legitmised.
Our chances of getting Permanent membership of security council is increased.

To get that we required two things to happen

Recognition of separate programme for civilian & military nuclear programme (approval from IAEA was required for it)
Trading in nuclear related material (NSG waiver did that for us)

Now once that is done, the question is does India need Indo-US deal. The answer to that is not so simple but we can live without it also. It was possible to live without all these steps also but after these steps the need of the deal is diminished though not demolished.

We shoulod realise that post NSG waiver, we can trade in nuclear related material with any country so now we are not dependent on US for nuclear supplies. The objective of US in this deal was multipronged:

It convinced its own public that they are doing this for non-proliferation.
A counter balance to China in Asia.
Creating business & jobs in their non-existent nuclear supplies companies in US.

Russia & France are ready to enter into such deal with India at any moment. We can even use our demand potential and NSG waiver as bargaining chip while entering into deals with lesser know countries for perpetual supply of nuke material. these would include counties like poland, angola.

But there lies some risks in not operationalising 123 deal viz.

US can exert pressure on smaller countries to not trade with India.
India's entry into exclusive security council will be in-ordinately delayed.
We can expect US to exert influence on all activities with India.
If it can extract waiver from NSG, then it can possibly get it reversed also.

In this situation what is the path that India should undertake.

If India enters into deal with US, the Hyde Act can create problems for us in the later years to come. As we tie up for fuel supplies with US, they can then easily exert influence us on any policy matter as our energy would be dependent on their supplies.

India is in such a situation where it does not need 123 deal but at the same time cannot deny to enter into deal.

The course of action should be as follows:

As elections are round the corner, delay the ratification of 123 deal. Let that ratification get spilled over to next coming government.
Advance talks with other countries for similar deals (maxim - "Do not put all your eggs in one basket")
After ratification, delay making policies for private participation in nuclear sector.
Allow immediately imports of dual use technology. (irrespective of any situation , the technology once acquired cannot be taken back, we can always copy it and make claims of being indigenous)
Allow dual use tech in renewable energy resources & other high tech areas. ( we should use that to develop technology to do nuclear testing simulations, so that we do not need to test other weapon ever again).

These are some of the steps that India can take.

Now it is upto our leadership to decide the path to undertake.

Crude Consumption.... An Mass Media Mis-Propaganda

2008-05-11T13:05:00.006+05:30

Everytime, there is rise in the price of the crude oil, all the media rants about the increasing consumption of Oil by developing nations like India and China and their huge apetite for the hydrocarbons. The responsibility of price rise without any justification is put squarely on these countries without providing any facts or figures supporting for it.

First of all, we need to understand that while comparing between any two entities the parameters need to be selected very carefully. It is rightly said, "Statistics are like mini-skirts, which reveal too much while covering vital things" The parameters of statistics are of utmost importance. As when defining whether a country is developed, developing, under-developed or undeveloped, the criteria used is either PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) per capita GDP or even plain vanilla PCI(Per Capita Income) in a single currency, to get an proper comparative idea, the same technique needs to be used while determining the consumption of crude oil by various states.

The basic argument used by all media is that more than 30% of the increased consumption of oil is cornered by the countries like china and India. But is that info pr0per to confer that the consumption of these countries is very high? Is increase in consumption the only parameter to judge it? Absolutely not... The absolute consumption of the oil is also important as compared to the increased consumption. Then there is a question, the total till date consumption of oil by all the countries? These developed countries have been guzzling oil at an alarming rate for past few decades. Had they not consumed at such an alarming rate, we would not have faced crisis situation today. countries like US would always like to point a finger which is not directed towards them. Who is going question them?

What is the consumption of these so called oil guzzlers? How much oil do developing countries consume as compared to other western countries and US?Now to understand better lets look at some figures:

US was consuming 20.5 million barrels of oil per day in 2006. While India was consuming 2.5 million barrels of oil and China was consuming 7.2 million barrels per day.
The US consumption is more than 8 times of India. That means 1% increase in oil consumption is equivalent to 8.5% increase in consumption of India.
India's total consumption of oil is equal to US's 1 1/2 months oil consumption.
India's population is more than One Crore (i.e. one Billion) while US population barely exceeds 300 million that means India has three times more population to support than US while consumption is one-eigth.
If we convert those consumption figures to per capita, then we could say that India's per capita consumption is 4% as compared to that of US.
The Per Capita consumption of energy by US is 68.81 barrels per person per year while India's consumption is 2.18 barrels per person per year. that is more than 33 times!!!!!

Where are these facts when Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency talks bull shit whilst saying that "The rapidly growing appetite for fossil fuels in China and India is likely to help keep oil prices high for the foreseeable future - threatening a global economic slowdown,"

Have they ever gone through these figures? Do they know how much is one barrel of oil?

One barrel of oil is equivalent to around 160 litres. that means a US citizen consumes about 11,000 litres of oil and oil equivalent per day!!!??????? Consider the mind boggling figures when I say 300 million population of US means 3264,000,000 litres per day i.e. about 3.2 billion litres per day. That is 1,191,360 million litres per year !!!!!!

These figures are completely mind boggling. I personally feel that there is huge mass media mis-prpoganda being done about the oil consumption by countries like India. Completely irrelevant data (no false) is being fed to general public and then completely baseless inference is being drawn.

In this world where in a democracy, Media is considered to be fourth pillar of democracy, I feel the Indian media should vociferously try to present a correct picture to the Indians and the world. Mass Media was used as a weapon even in the days of second world war and later in the Cold War Era...

I warn all of you to not fall victims to this propoganda. Try to question the data and analyse it before drawing any conclusion from it. Even Indian leadership should take effort to present correct picture all the citizens. Complete facts should be presented and then the person should be allowed to draw the conclusion. Do not accept the conclusion drawn by others. (especially western media)

Though concerned about the Global climate change, the developed countries like US have outrightly refused to decrease the emission of GHGs (Green House Gases). They rant about developing countries food consumption has led to increase in food prices. Do they know how much they consume or how much food they waste? (that would be another post to discuss about)

Our Foreign Policy should include mass media propoganda as to increase awarness about the issues and mis-conception. They should take help of this powerful force which could help to change the opinion of the general public and allow to take the right decisions.

Agni III IRBM or ICBM

2008-05-07T23:48:00.003+05:30

Length : 17 metres

Diameter : 2 metres

Range: 3,000+ km

Payload: 1,500 kg

War head Type: Nuclear also

Velocity : 4km/sec

What is Agni III?

Some tout it as IRBM. some argue over that it is an ICBM in the veil of IRBM. The official stand is that Agni III tested by India on May 07, 2008 was an 3000+ km range missile with a capacity of around 1500 kg war head.

The question is what is IRBM & what is ICBM? then may be we can answer what Agni III represents. but alas there is no definite definition of even that. If you try and scourge few forums you would realise that the discussion everywhere is Agni III is an ICBM in the veil of IRBM. As the payload is of 1,500 kg, if it is reduced to 1000kg then the range of the missile would increase by almost 50% i.e. it could reach target of more than 4,500 km.

This stand could be vindicated by the Russian general's statement that the development of Agni III closely follows that of Russian SS-20 missiles & the range of Agni III can breach 5,000km.

Anyways the policy followed by Indians is quite impressive by packaging the ICBM range missile as IRBM and avoiding a controversy regarding it. This kind of diplomacy shows the coming of maturity of the Indian International Political stance.

The important factor should be there should not more delay in testing the other advanced and improved versions of this missile.

K-15 Code name for Sagrika--Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile

2008-02-27T13:59:00.008+05:30

India on Tuesday, February 26, 2008 successfully testfired tactical submarine-to-surface Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile(SLBM) 'Sagarika' codenamed K-15. The test was conducted from a 50 metre submerged pontoon off the coast of Vishakhapatnam. The missile will be mounted on much touted India's nuclear submarine Advanced Technology Vehicle (ATV), which is in developmental stage.

India had earlier also conducted a test of this missile but was declared as partial success because of course deviation.

Missile Stats:

Length : 8.5 Metres

Diameter : 1 metre

Weight : 7 tonnes

Payload : 500 kg

Nuclear Ready : Yes

Range: 700 Km

Stages : Two

Developed by: Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) Misile Complex, Hyderabad, Defence Research & Development Laboratory (DRDL), Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL), Research Centre Imarat(RCI)

DRDL : Misssile design & development

ASL : Motors & Propulsion Systems

RCI: Avionics, including control & guiding systems & inertial navigation systems

The test has put into select club of countries with a strategic deterrent forceat sea. The other countries who have this capability are United States (Trident-11,300 km ), Russia (Bulava-10,000km), France (M4 - 5,000km) & China (JL-1, NA, JL-2- 8,000km under development).

The India has also now completed one more leg of Nuclear Triad for minimum deterrence. India already has AgniI, Agni II, Prithvi as Surface to Surface Ballistic Missiles. Sagarika will defeintely add punch to deterrence by providing sea based launch capacity. India is also working on its surface to air missile Akash & Trishul, Air-to-Air missiles Astra, anti tank missile Nag.

Defence Expo 2008.. Spawing MilBus in India...

2008-02-18T22:16:00.004+05:30

The ongoing Fifth International Land & Naval Exhibition system, DEFEXPO 2008 at Pragati Maidan, New Delhi has generated lot of heat & flutter among the aspirant buyers & dealers of arms & armaments.

475 defence manufacturers, 30 countries, 32,000 square meters area, staggering launch of 91 new products ranging from radars, to communications systems, torpedoes, anti-mine vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles is bound to turn lot of heads towards India. RIA Novosti reports that with India arms spending, around $30 billion on arms spend in 2007, has acquired global dimensions. Indian private sector is vying for atleast 30% of that pie which would amount to $10 billion which is India expects, the public sector won't be able to absorb. India's spend on arms will be around 2.5% of the GDP which is huge amount considering India being 4th largest economy in the world.

A great number of collaborations & negotiations between Indian companies & foreign defence equipment manufacturers have also been anounced. some of those notably are

TATA Advanced Systems (India) sign MOU with Israeli Aerospace Industries to manufacture and develop missiles, pilotless aircrafts, electronic warfare systems, radars and other security systems and defence equipments.
TATA has also tied up with European Defence and Aerospace Consortium for developing advanced tactical communications system project for Indian Army.
TATA also made a contract with US based Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation for manufacturing cabins for Sikorsky’s S-92 helicopters.
TATA also made a joint venture of the company with American aircraft major, Boeing, which is touted as the largest deal of the EXPO.
Mahindra Defence Systems (MDS), a part of the Mahindra & Mahindra Group, is in advanced negotiations for a strategic alliance with Whitehead Alenia Sistemi Subacquei (WASS). The proposed underwater defence JV with WASS will jointly address the Indian requirement for underwater defence bringing to the country's armed forces affordable world-class underwater defence systems.
European naval defence systems major DCNS Group announced that it would set up its Indian subsidiary to facilitate ongoing and future projects.
DCNS has recently signed agreements with Kirloskar Oil Engines for integrated platform management systems and with Walchandnagar Industries Ltd. propulsion system parts for the next generation ASW (anti-submarine warfare) corvettes being built for the Indian Navy.

There is still a day remaining & lot of exuberance is still being showcased. This binneial event is touted to be largest of its kind. China has remained away from the EXPO while Pakistan was invited to it.

This EXPO has created lot of exuberance in the Indian Private sector to grab a slice of the Indian Defence market. This will naturally aid to the MilBus(Military Business nexus) in India. Indian defence minister also announced that midllemen will be completely eliminated & has also trying to reduce lot of procedural hiccups while sourcing defence deals.

Indian Goverment does not place orders with the private sector company which does not have less than 26% equity owned by foreign collaborators. It is expected that this norm may be relaxed, which will definitely provide a huge boost to the industry here...

Twist to Tawang Saga...

2008-02-11T22:55:00.000+05:30

India has atlast decided to offer some resistance to China's unchequered moves.... Beijing lodged a verbal protest over the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh's description of Arunachal as "Our land of the rising sun". External affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee asserted that "Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part" of India, and that "the PM can visit any part of the country".

This sharp reaction was infact very necessary for a quite long time. India has not been reacting sharply to chinese overtures over the Tawang. In a sense, New Delhi has only itself to blame for looking over its shoulder every time it mentioned Arunachal, fearful of allowing the sino-Indian boundary question to overshadow the narrow meeting ground between the two countries on various confidence measures.

Although China has given up its territotiral claims over sikkim, it reluctance to do the same regarding the Arunachal Pradesh shows its stubborness & ununderstanding nature. The Chinese have not yet declared their version of maps delineating the border areas. This itself shows that China is reluctant to settle the border row in amicable way. The more we try to avoid the confrontation is to allow them to make more noise regarding their stance on the issue and beware the tin which makes more noise is always visible..

India needs to make more noise about its stand as CBMS are not gonna make any headstart towards amicable settlement..

Pakistan to mass produce JF-17 Single Seat Multirole Chinese Fighter Aircraft

2008-01-23T12:27:00.000+05:30

Pakistan began on Tuesday Jan 22, 2008, the mass assembly of a JF-17 fighter at an aircraft-manufacturing plant in the northwest of the country, national television reported.

The JF-17 Thunder, also known as the FC-1 "Chao Qi" Fierce Dragon in China, is a single-seat multirole fighter aircraft developed by China. It is based on the design of Russian MIG 33, which was rejected by Russian Airforce. Earlier the costs odf these planes was said to be $10 million but the curretn reports suggests that the costs have escalated to $20 million per piece with production of 300 planes. Earlier the serial production was to be started in Jan 2006 but got delayed due to modifications/upgradations sought by pakistan air force.

China had made a deal with Musharraf in 1998 to manufacture 150 such aircrafts in Pakistan. About 50% of the on-board equipment and avionics for the fighter will be manufactured in Pakistan at the Kamra plant, while the rest of the assembly parts are to come from China.Pakistani Air Force Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mahmood Ahmed, said last year that 15 aircraft would be manufactured in 2008, and a further 20 next year, with an ultimate goal of achieving the capability to manufacture 25 to 30 aircraft per year.Pakistan has announced that it could procure 150-300 aircraft to meet the tactical and strategic needs of its Air Force and to replace the Chengdu F-7P fighters in current service.Beijing delivered two $20-mln JF-17 fighters equipped with Russian-made RD-93 engines to Pakistan in March 2007, prompting Indian protests. India claimed the deal was a violation of the end-user agreement between Russia and China.

The JF-17 is a light weight, all weather, multi-role aircraft having a capability to fly at a speed of Mach 1.6 and a high thrust to weight ratio. The aircraft has the ability to engage targets at all speeds and altitudes within the conventional flying envelope. In the surface attack and interdiction role, the aircraft can strike at long distances. The combat jet has been installed with an advanced flight control system, which is a mix of conventional and fly-by-wire controls, making it highly agile and manoeuvrable.
The aircraft would be capable of carrying short-range, beyond visual range, anti-ship as well as anti-radiation missiles. Additionally, the carriage of high and low drag bombs, laser guided bombs, run away penetration bombs and cluster bombs would be catered for.

TECSAR ..... Unvisible Eye in Sky

2008-01-21T15:01:00.000+05:30

Amidst much secrecy, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) agency has successfully launched the Israeli satellite TECSAR.The 350 kg satellite also referred to sometimes as Polaris is being launched from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh using the Indian workhorse rocket the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV).

Considering the extreme geopolitical sensitivity of the launch, ISRO has made no formal announcement for this mission. This satellite is considered to be spy satellite of Israel.

TECSAR can take high resolution pictures even in clouded and foggy weather. It is most advanced satellite ever made by Israel. There are also rumours of India having entered into data sharing arrangement for the satellite launched from Indian shores.

Surface to Air Missile - Akash

2007-12-19T22:45:00.000+05:30

The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) on Wednesday successfully test-fired the Akash surface-to-air missile from the Chandipur-on-Sea launch station. Today’s launch is one amongst the series of tests that are being carried out by the premiere defence research organisation. Akash was last tested on the 14th of this month from the same place.

While terming the test a success, senior defence officials said that the top-of-the-line missile had followed expected trajectory and hit a flying target effectively.

However, this series of tests is not the first for Akash as it had been tested earlier too, last being in January, 2007.

The 700-kilogramme Akash can track 100 targets simultaneously with onboard radar while moving at a speed of 600 metres per second. It has been designed to deliver a 55-kilogramme warhead across 27 kilometres in 50 seconds.

Akash testing gains significance as it has come days after the government announced plans to enhance India’s nuclear capability by developing missiles capable of hitting targets 6,000 kilometres away.

Moreover, Pakistan had also earlier in the month tested their nuke capable missile Ghauri that has been specifically designed to neutralise India’s Prithvi class of missiles.

India's Indigenous Missile Defence....

2007-12-11T19:15:00.000+05:30

Dear Readers,

Starting from today, I am introducing a new series of posts related to India's Defence. All these posts will have the tag of defence updates..... I will also continue giving analysis & recommendations on India's posture in defence & International Politics. Those articles require quite a deal of time to be dwelt upon. nevertheless, efforts will be made to post articles more frequently.....

India's Indigenous Missile Defence....

On December 6th, 2007, India tested indigenously developed supersonic interceptor missile. This very first test itself was a success. This will give boost to India's defence capabilities keeping in mind the latest political developments in neighbouring Pakistan and recent missile tests by it...

India's Cryotech!!! Really India's!!???

2007-11-18T23:41:00.000+05:30

(For full resolution photo click here)

Almost everybody has been lauding about India's successful testing of "Indigenous" cryogenic engine for full flight duration of 720 seconds on November 15, 2007 for upper stage of India's GSLV. Ground test for 480 seconds was conducted in August 2007.

ISRO Chairman G Madhavan Nair while delivering the thirty-second foundation day lecture on `Space Technology Development - Management Perspective' at the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore said that "we have completed the qualification of indigenous cryogenic engine. It is as good as Russian one."

Now, does that mean it is almost as good as the one we got it from Russia or we have made a engine comparable to Russian one is anybody's good guess. Vijainder K thakur claims that the Indian cryogenic engine is none other than Russian oxygen/hydrogen liquid-propellant rocket engine KVD-1. It is the only one of its kind in the world. The reasoning & the references given by V K thakur are found to be quite credible. (he has also listed references at the end of the article) The article mentions that India had entered into $120 million contract for supply of 2 KVD-1 cryogenic engines & complete transfer of technology with the Glavkosmos. In 1993 US forced Russia to cancel that contract citing violation of MTCR(Misssile Technology Control Regime). Glavkosmos renegotiated the contract to exclude transfer of technology and the sanctions were lifted by US. later ISRO exuded confidence of bulding own engines but faltered in its development. The development is in process since 1986. In december 2001 we renegotiated the contract & further development of launch was collaborated, that also meant that Russia will also help in development of current technoogy.

There are some other aspects which tells us that the engine is definitely indigenous but not exactly true to its term. The Engine developed may be indigenously but the tech has not been sold to us by the Russians rather stolen by us from Russian Cryogenic engines supplied to us for our own GSLV launchings.

You would recall that India entered into contract with Russia for supply 5 cryogenic engines for launches og GSLV in December 2001. Except for the failure of the launch of GSLV F02 in July 2006, all the other launches were fairly successful. The official reason for failure of F02 launch was said to be faulty regulator in one of the Four strap on boosters to the launch vehicle. My wild guess was that the ISRO is not so naive to make a mistake in strap on booster. Rather the failure was because of the Faulty Cryogenic engine fitted in the launch vehicle. The original engine was used by India to copy the tech involved in it. Nowhere did anybody discuss about what happened to the cryo part of launch vehicle. By placing the blame on the strap-on booster, gaze of all was shifted away from cryo part. The realty must be that cryo engine was used by Indian scientists to develop our so called very own engine.

Vijainder Thakur is correct in assessing that ISRO has not told the complete truth. India has really been facing lt of hassles in developing critical technologies. rather they be for MBT Arjun, missiles under IGMDP (Integrated Missile Development Programme), Ummaned Arial Vehicles or Bullet Proof vests for Armed forces. All have seen major failures. None of the above said programmes have had successes to the considerable levels.

The real test of Cryogenic engine does lie in testing but successful launching of GSLV having indigenous engine.

Pakistan----Unstable Neighbourhood

2007-11-16T18:27:00.000+05:30

The recent turmoil in our neighbourhood has left evrybody in an uneasy situation. Pervez Musharraf's recent actions seem to suggest a nation to be on brink of collapse, even though reconciliatory voices are being made by the President.

To end the crisis of leading the country on two fronts i.e. militarily & politically, the ongoing president sought a middle way out by having a US brokered deal with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Even after packing of Nawaz Sharif to Saudi, everybody was convinced that Musharraf wanted to step down as military ruler and take over the reins as the civilian President of the country.

Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister of Pakistan entered into deal with musharraf wherein she would be allowed to come back to Pakistan and take part in elections and Musharraf would step down as Military leader and assume the post of civilian President.

But even before drying the ink of the deal, the volte-de-face by Bhutto as to raving about actions of musharraf immediately on landing in pakistan sent a wrong note of her intentions. Bhutto instead of trying to have fair elections started ranting about musharraf and his cronies. This has lead to a peculiar situation, where though a military leader was ready to accede power to politician, the ramblings have lead a question mark on Bhutto's intentions.

Evrybody is trying to call Musharraf's actions as unwarranted, but has anybody thought what would happen, if a person like Benazir Bhutto comes to power? the lady who has been already facing charges for her role in rampant corruption in the state. the lady who immediately changed her tune once reaching pakistan. the lady who does not recognise the immediate situationin hand and instead goes on offensive against the person who brought her in pakistan back.

Musharraf is in a unique situation, where all his efforts to change pakistan have failed. Extremists have increased the hold over the state. Military itself has been echoing misgivings about their general. whatever little crackdown of militants has turned ISI against the government.

If there is no stable ruler (whether military or political) in pakistan, it will have grave consequences on India too. India at this juncture is having a party with its economy zooming, rising stock markets, burgeoning forex reserves, strong currency and buoyant growth in economic health. India cannot afford to have a failed state in the neighbourhood. It will bring the chaos of Afghanistan to our doorstep. It will unreasonably increasse our defence expenditure and bring an abrupt end to the party.

India needs to make sure (by hook or crook) that Pakistan does not end in civil war and become a headless chicken with no effective control over its defence & nuclear material. Our intelligence system needs to be bolstered at this moment to understand the exact temperature within the neighbouring state.

But alas our politicians are interested in their own (read political party) affairs than about our nations....

"EKA" Fastest in Asia, 4th fastest in world, Supercomputing Elite in India now....

2007-11-13T21:53:00.000+05:30

India's Tata Group has catapulted India into a new league by launching Asia's Fastest Supercomputer named "Eka" which means number Uno in sanskrit.

The supercomputer at Computational Research Laboratory(CRL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Sons Ltd., has been adjudged fourth fastest supercomputer according to Top 500 supercomputer list, the International Conference for High Performance Computing.

Some Info:

"Eka" has been developed jointly by CRL and Hewlett Packard. The system has peak performance of 170 teraflops(Trillion Floating Point Operations) and sustained performance of 117.9 teraflops as LINPACK benchmark. The system has 1800 nodes. It has been developed using HP's Cluster platform 3000 BL460C system. It uses quad core clovertown processors from Intel.

It has incorporated CLOS architecture and uses fibre based infiniband interconnect technologies. It has Linux Operating System. The cost of the machine is $30 million wholly financed by Tata Sons Ltd. It uses 14,240 processor cores.

CRL has 2.5 MW captive power installed for "Eka" at pune. 20% of the staff at CRL comprises of PhDs. CRL was incorporated in February 2006 and its facility is in Pune spread over 4,000 sq ft area. The company plans to increase its staff strength from 60 to 90 by the fourth quarter of this year.

Comparatives:

The IBM's Blue gene has been adjudged as fastest supercomp in the world with performance of 478 teraflops which is more than three times that of "Eka". The second fastest machine is also from IBM blue gene range wih speed of 167.3 teraflops installed in Germany. The number three system is from New Mexico Computing Applications Center (NMCAC) with speed of 126.9 teraflops.

The second ranked supercomputer in India, rated 58th in the Top500 list is at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore. Others are ranked 152, 158, 179, 336, 339,340 and 371.

Quotes:

Ratan Tata, Chairman of the Tata Group said:

"High performance computing solutions have an ever-increasing role in the scientific and new technological space the world over. The Tata Group has supported this development activity and is extremely proud of the team that has developed and built this supercomputer, which is now ranked as the world's fourth fastest. I am sure this supercomputer and its successor systems will make a major contribution to India's ongoing scientific and technological initiatives."

S Ramadorai, chairman of CRL and CEO and MD of Tata Consultancy Services said:

"CRL's supercomputer, EKA, has put India at the forefront of high performance and supercomputing technology globally. EKA gives us the ability to address applications in multiple disciplines including software development and research, The successful launch of the supercomputer has been driven by an exemplary team at CRL working collaboratively with scientists across the Tata Group."

Mr. Balu Doraisamy, Managing Director, HP India Sales said:

“HP is honored to partner with Tata CRL, a leading name in the field of High Performance Computing, from the inception stages of the project, all the way through its production. We are proud to work collaboratively with Tata CRL to take forward their vision of being a global leader in HPC, building scalable and cutting-edge supercomputer architectures while making affordable research in India a reality.”

Operability:

In the near term, CRL is targeting and developing applications such as neural simulation, molecular simulation, computational fluid dynamics, crash simulation, and digital media animation and rendering. The long-term application areas would include: financial modelling, seismic modelling, geophysical signal processing, weather prediction, medical imaging, nanotechnology, personalised drug discovery, real-time rendering, and virtual worlds among others. CRL also intends to offer high-performance and supercomputer system integration, research, applications and software services to its customers around the globe in the area of high-performance computing.

EKA can be applied in the fields of automotive engineering (cross simulation), drug discovery and nanotechnology, according to a company presentation.

Israel's raid on Syria -- What is law?

2007-10-29T09:39:00.000+05:30

Last Month, Israel carried out a surprise raid on Syria alleged Secret Nuclear Reactor. No explanations, no clarifications was given for the raid. After the raid, reports emerge of possible nuclear reactor being bombed out. Satellite images are circulated around the world wide web and quietly votes are garnered for the act.

Neither Israel not US (staunch ally of Israel) have made any comments on the raid carried out. The news is just buried out. While as any comments by the so called Axis of evil or an of the nation opposing US are widely discussed and explanations are sought, sanctions are planned, threats are issued. Why this double standards bu these nations.

Does Syria does not have any rights? Do all the survival rights reside with only Israel and those believing in Israel? & Why when Turkey wants to oust kurdish rebels, so much opposition is meted out, while an unauthorised, illegal, unwarranted raid is carried out on a nation, no single word is being uttered?

Everybody knows that US does not give a damn what happens to other countries till its interests are concerned. US while attacking Iraq did not care whether it had WMD or not. It does not care whether what happens to beacuse of global warming and does not sign kyoto protocol.

yeah, but it does care what statements did Ahmedijinad makes, what Turkey thinks about kurds?

It is glad to know that, though after a month, El- Baradei has lasheds out at Israel for its taking the law into their hands. Israel should be tried in international court of law for violating other countries airspace. It should be made to compensate Syria for the damage caused.

If countries like Israel & US will not follow International law, what could we expect from nations who are ruled by dictators & ruthless military regimes?

Tejas (Light Combat Aircraft Weaponised), test fires combat missile

2007-10-26T09:51:00.000+05:30

Light Combat Aircraft developed by India and rechristened as "TEJAS" has formally tested a combat missile. It fired a short range combat missile to test the endurance and flutter disturbances not only on high altitudes but also while firing of missiles.

This test has demonstrated that Tejas is now worthy of armament integration. This missile is developed by Hindustan Aeronautics limited (HAL). Contributions were also made by NAL (National Aerospace laboratories) and IAF (Indian Air Force).

Tejas has till now recorded total of 763 sorties but is still away from being declared as operational. It has the latest fly by wire technique installed in it, which is a state of art technology. The expected date to be operationalised is 2010. It made its maiden flight in 2001.

Pact with Singapore---Securing Boundaries

2007-10-21T14:34:00.000+05:30

On 9th October, India and Singapore signed a long term defence agreement, wherein both the countries will conduct joint training and give fresh impetus to defense tis between both countries.
India will lease out military bases to Singapore for five years on payment bases. Kalaikunda base is being leased out where singapore will station most advanced F-16 fighter aircrafts. India will also get to learn a great deal about the advanced technologies used by that nation. singapore has one of the most advanced military forces in the world.

Singapore has one of the highest per capita expenditure on defence in the world. The armaments maintained by it one of the most sophisticated. The pact will give India a paak into the advanced technologies in the world of defence.

Singapore has simliar kind of pacts with nations like France, US, Australia and Taiwan.

India and singapore have been jointly patrolling in the Indian Ocean for security to the commercial vessels in malaicca straits.

The deal will also provide intelligence inputs to India on high seas.

Update on Brahmos

2007-10-10T21:46:00.000+05:30

The first likely customer of Indian Russian joint venture production, Brahmos Missile seems to be Malaysia. The missile is being touted as "Universal Supersonic Cruise" Missile.

Brahmos Aerospace Private Ltd's chief executive officer Dr A. Sivathanu Pillai said India would only sell the sophisticated missiles to countries that are friendly and those considered as strategic partners in India's security equation.

This missile is said to be three times faster than American Tomahawk cruise missile.

It is expected that 1000 such missiles would be sold in the first phase.....

Cartosat 2A --Is it military?

2007-09-26T12:27:00.000+05:30

For quite some time now, India has been bracing itself for the launch of Cartosat 2A, so called weather satellite. But is it so? The kind of specifications like less than 1 metre resolution with a swath of 10 km, all weather photography and adavanced imaging & its processing. Cartosat @ had storage capacity of 120 GB, considering that 2A may have lot more than that.

It is said to piggy back ride with Israel's spy satellite some time in firsat quarter of next calendar year. The kind of technology incorporated in the satellite does give rise to speculations of its intended use. Now with ISRO making statements like " We are not concerned with what user does with the data generated from the satellite" gives strength to the suspicions as Indian Governemtn will be the prime agency using its data..

The kind of delay in launching Israelly satellite along with Cartosat 2A also gives hints that India is trying to tie up with Israel for possible use of data generated by cartosat 2A by both India & Israel in amicable ways. that ways India will be able to reduce launch costs by piggybacking, recover money spent on making satellite by clinching intelligence deal with Israel..

Quite an intelligent move....

ISRO & INDIA Should Stop Self Patronising

2007-09-04T22:17:00.000+05:30

ISRO has launched INSAT 4CR successfully using GSLV. And lo behold everybody is congratulating other for such an feat. Yes, the flawless launch has added an one more feather to the ISRO's cap. GSLV has been declared completely operational and many more flights of it have been planned. ISRO has also tested new avionics and will be using those next year in PSLV launches. It has reduced the weight of launchers by using this improved avionics.

Yes, this all is true but what is also true is the cryogenic stage carried by GSLV F04 is of Russian origin. We still do not know the exact date when our launchers will be having indigenous cryo engine. The engine was last tested for duration of 8 minutes. It still needs lots of test to be used for actual flight.

The above picture taken from website Bharat-Rakshak shows the GSLV family. It is quite impressive one but the fact remians unless & until we do not have our own cryo engine, future will be suspect. If we really need to compete in the commercial space, we need to stop patronizing ourselves on every launch and direct our resources and eneries on developing more indigeneous content and reducing costs and foreign dependence.

India now need to take up basic research and develop newer and cost effective technologies to compete in international markets.

Nuke Deal, 123 agreement, Does it really means more power or something else

2007-08-28T20:16:00.000+05:30

Everybody is today talking about nuke deal with US. Almost all the people barring the leftist are arguing that 123 deal will help India jack up Power production, will help sagging Indian nuclear industry, allow state of technology to be imported. The moot question is this the objective of nuke deal? Do India really have huge shortage of uranium and its tech to process it? Is re-processing so important that without, we would not be able to prosper? Will backing of deal now mean loss of credibility for India on international fora?

Lets examine these issues one by one..

1) Does India really have shortage of nuclear fuel i.e. Uranium?

Ans: The question is bit wrong. first of all nuclear fuel does not mean only uranium. plutonium, thorium are also used as fuel in nuclear reactors. India has also been designing fast breeder reactors based on thorium as fuel requiring very less uranium as startup fuel. India has 0.8% of world uranium reserves i.e 78,000 tonnes of that metal. aren't these enough? yes, this much fuel is enough to generate electricity for India needs. A mix of AHWRS(Advanced Heaby Water Reactors) and FBRs(Fast Breeder Reactors) can fuel India's needs to produce 3,50,000 Mw of electricity in next half century. This prediction is based on current reserves. If we take into account the newly developed FTBR (Fast Thorium Breeder Reactor) , we can then work wonders. Although the new technology is still years away from actual implementation, it can reasonably assured that this tech can work. The way this reactor breeds Uranium and Plutonium, we can theoretically double capacity every 15-20 years. This all is based on current reserves of uranium think what will happen, if we are able to find more deposits of uranium?

2) Does India have shortage of uranium and its tech to reprocess?

Ans: The above questions answer comfortably answers even to the current question that we do have enough uranium and the related tech to reprocess it. India has built FBTR (Fast Breeder Test Reactor) "Kamini" to prove the same. we are also in the process to intall bigger breeder reactors. The development of FTBR, which not only breeds plutonium (which is also used as input) but also breeds uranium. It is also called twin core reactor for its unique design. These all inputs prove that yes, we have technology to process and reprocess the nuclear fuel.

3) Is re-processing so important that without, we would not be able to prosper?

Ans: The answer to this question is "YES", we need reprocessing of fuel to breed it and enhance our overall potential to generate power or electricity, whatever we use it for. All the above calculation of 3,50,000 Mwe of power is based on the fact that we are able to reprocess the spent fuel on AHWRs and breed them using FBRs. This was in fact India three step program to achieve independency in nuclear power. So reprocessing is absolutely essential for India.

4) Will backing of deal now mean loss of credibility for India on international fora?

Ans: No. backing out of this deal India would not lose credibility. India is already such a huge success story that none of the constituemts of world economy ignore India. Irrespective of what is happening to Nuke deal, we will keep contiuning our business with China and other nations. Nuclear deal has not yet been signed or ratified by either party. It needs to be endorsed by IAEA (International Atomic energy Agency) and NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) to be enforced. We are still at step two of long process. Actually killing deal at this point of time will not make big difference compared to India backing out after getting all the approvals.

5) The big question now is then what is the purpose of this Nuke Deal?

Ans: World today is not correct representation of its constituents. The NPT regime(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) and CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) does not treats responsible countries with difference rather favours only specific countries and punishes responsible countries like India. No country can undo the process of NPT or CTBT but almost all the major powers realise that excluding an big country like India from the nuclear club cannot be in their interests. So to gain backdoor entry into nuclear club, this nuke deal is being done.

Being said this, I would further say this is not the only reason. This reason sounds acceptable from view of other countries. In case of India, it gives an opportunity to legitimise the nuclear weaponisation of the country. It provides an opportunity to override the international rules for non-nuclear country as per NPT.

India has its own nuclear weapons programme. Having earlier said that Uranium reserves are enough for power generation, these very same reserves also need to be utilised for weapons programme. If they are used for weapons, we will not be able to reprocess and increase it potentiality. we need separate reserves for our weapons programme too. If this deal goes through, we can use the indigenous nuclear fuel for our weapons programme and use imported fuel for our power generation.

In case of testing of nuclear weapon and sanctions by all countries(which will never happen), we can always back off from treaty and refuse to handover the used, processed and reprocessed fuel. No country can take military action for the same against us. Maximum harm that may happen is some countries will cease to have nuclear relations with us for some time. Then after that all relations will be re-established.

In this current world politics, we need to get out of the non-servient thinking and look beyond words. Our acts to strengthen our defence and economic power will be deterrent to other countries to snap ties with us. Though we honour all treaties and agreements, we should never let these things to come as hinderance to the progress of the country as whole. We need to diplomatically twist the situations to our needs and gian from them.....

Commercialization of Defence Industry.....key to have Global influence

2007-08-17T18:22:00.000+05:30

India is setting up two new Defence production units, one for production of Bi-Modular Charge System (BMCS). It is an artillery charging device used for 155 mm Bofors Gun. Bofors Gun really proved useful in Kargil war. This indigenous production of parts will really help. AS we recall, India had lot of problems during Kargil war for sourcing of parts for armoury. The other will be producing new generation carbines.

India has also tested armed version of ALH (Advanced Light Helicopter) 'Dhruv'. It is fitted with indigenously developed "Shakti" engine. (the engine has been developed in collaboration with french major Turbomecca). Recently HAL (Hindustan Aeronauticals Limited) had bagged orders for civilian version of DHRUV. Military version was earlier very difficult to export as it had lot of imported content and was restricted for export to various countries.

Due to local content, we can now export these to more countries.

My Comments:

Every industry to survive needs lots of funds. But to innovate and develop new methods, technologies, it needs incentive. Indian defence industry is not devoid of money but of incentive to develop newer ideas and technologies. Commercialisation of Defence industry wil bring in additional revenue to the industry and make it less dependent on Government for its regular functioning. The government funding then can be utilised for only Research & Development purpose only. Introduction of Intellectual Property Rights for the technologies developed and transfering the benefit of the same to the concerned person/party/entity will be the right step to bring in more talent to this sector.

The other factor involving commercial aspect of defence is more leverage in international relations. Once India starts to ramp up its defence production and start exporting material, more and more countries would be dependent upon India for their defence needs. This situation can then be leverage to exert more influence in non-military aspects in international fora. The eco-political benefits of the same will take some time to be noticed, but then every step towards that is a help.

US trade deficit and its implications......

2007-08-12T12:41:00.001+05:30

Does US trade deficit really matter or is it just notional in value?

quite some back, I had heard a theory saying that US does not pay anybody for buying goods from them rather prints money and buys more goods.

The logic behind that was very simple. "US imports more than it exports. All the foreign trade is primarily done in US Dollar, i.e. the currency of international trade. US when imports goods pays in dollars and when exports receives dollar. When in deficit, there is excess outflow of dollars. now, who owns dollar? who creates dollar? US itself owns dollars and creates dollars. So to pay for excess deficit, what it needs is just print more dollars and give to the exporters. Earlier when the whole monetary system was basedojn gold, this would not have worked but, after gold standard was abolished, Central banks of any country print as much currency they like without any backup for the same."

Though the above theory stands fine there are some comple issues involved with this like what will happen when money suppy increases witght the amount of dollars provided by the apex bank of US? will we have another run of hyperinflation? what if the US is unable to honour the rights of the holders of the US currency?

Even now, most of the US currency is held by the foreigners & not by the US nationals. Most of the forex assets amassed by large number of developing countries are in fact invested in US securities.almost 40-60% of the Chinese foreign exchange tranche of $1.2 trillion are invested in US state bonds and treasuries.

One study recently concluded that though US is having trade deficit, it has positive balance of payment situation, this is due to the fact that monies invested in US is in far excess of the trade deficit of US.

Now let us analyse the international relations in trade and effects in case of emergencies or crisis.

The world markets and its costituents are linked with each other in such a complicated manner, that it is very difficult to analyse the precise effects of any crisis. The latest meltdown of American subprime markets affecting a French giant, which triggers of stockmarket meltdown across the planet complexities of controlling or analysing the current markets.

Whenever a prominent country, exchange, institution has financial crisis, then all the other constituents try to make sure that its effects have minimalist affect on their operations.

What happens when two countries on tradable terms harbour animosity and cease to have operations with each other? What happens when they are at war with each other?

This results in each country describing the other part as enemy country. The first thing is all the contracts entered between own country and enemy country become void. None of the parties are liable to pay each other the debts owned by them. All the funds owned by them of the other party are taken over by the state.

suppose such situation arises between US and any one of the other countries, then all the debts owned by US will not be paid by them. All the forex invested by the other country in US securities will be rendered junk. no one will purchase them and US won't honour them. The external debt position of US will turn very favourable overnight. All the goods already imported by them will not be returnable and the debts incurred for the same will be non-payable. All the amounts invested by companies from other country will be taken over by the state. So all the capital invested by other country will be nationalised.

So though in theory large amount of external debt, huge trade deficit, they can always turn the tide by merely converting that country into enem,y state.

Maybe this was the reason though Iraq did not possess any Weapons of Mass Destruction, though no proof was available to US to prove the same, though cost of war on Iraq was in far excess of cost of oil available from Iraq, they went ahead. The reason was, at one point of time Iraq was one of the most modern states in the Gulf and it was exporting oil and importing finished goods, but it also had a thriving industrial base. this is what was feared by US. that monies spent by them was not utilised for importing goods but to strengthen themselves. Theoretically every oil rich country which will try to reduce external dependence will face the fate of Iraq.

And above analysis confirms that US being really militarily supreme can turn tide ot its side.

Indo US Nuclear Agreement.......

2007-08-05T14:42:00.001+05:30

Click here is the text of Indo US Nuclear agreement.....

Coutesy: Ministry of External Affairs of India

Indo-US Nuclear Agreement : Indian Govt reasoning and Way out as per Arun Shourie

2007-07-28T17:44:00.000+05:30

Arun shourie has in this article demonstrated how India can increase its stockpile of nuclear weapons.
IntelliBriefs: Indo-US Nuclear Agreement : Indian Govt reasoning and Way out as per Arun Shourie

India should not only be counting on US help and imported uranium for its energy needs. It needs to fast forward its breeder reactors to reduce dependence on imported uranium and try to achieve sufficiency atleast for its weapons programme. The more fast breeder reactors we have, faster would be growth in our potential of nuclear power.

The study by Ashley Tellis, Architect of Indo US nuclear deal details that all the nuclear reactors in India (including the ones which are being constructed) will not require more than 30,000 tonnes of uranium in their entire lifetime. These are the reactors which are being used for weaponisation programme. Apart from that all the nuclear reactors used for power generation will not use more than 15,000 tonnes of uranium in their entire life time. India has total of 78,000 tonnes of proven uranium reserves. If enough research is done, the figure could go on higher side also.

Fast breeder reactors (reactors which give more uranium as output than the quantity consumed by it) are an interesting concept which will help increase the stockpile. so if we have one breeder reactor for every conventional reactor, we can completely eliminate the search for more uranium.

My Analysis

The nuclear deal with US is not for just import or more access to uranium but to be respectfully included in the group of nuclear equipped countries and in effect, diminish the value of NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement). Nuclear deal will not only give access to more uranium worldwide (Australia is considering exports of uranium to India) but also other nuclear raw material and technilogy available with the NSG group.

Pact without Bargain with Austalia----India's foolishness

2007-07-10T17:13:00.000+05:30

Australian Defence Minister Brendan Nelson is on a visit to India to strengthen defence ties, particularly in the maritime survellance. It is being alleged by China that Australia, US, Japan & India (so called "axis of democracy") are seeking to "contain' China.

It is true to some extent that Australia and Japan have been wary to growing military might of China in the Asia Pacific region. Australia's Defence Minister before coming to India was in China and has tried to assure China that nobody is planning against China. even Indian Prime Minister has conveyed to Chinese Premier that they are not ganging up against China. In Short, everybody has tried to allay Chinese fears. But the situation on the ground remains different. US has still not made any comment on these developments or chinese allegations.

Brendan Nelson will sigining a pact with India for exchange of information. This will basically cover future defence deals, joint research projects and other co-operation where it is necessary for military of both countries to share classified information.

My Analysis & Recommendations:

Japan is an traditional nemesis of China and has always been wary of growing Chinese military might. Japan does not have armed forces of its own. Its military security is the responsibility of US and so japan has maintaining close ties with washington. Japan is concerned about China being militarily as well as economically growing at a fast pace. Until now, Japan was only the only economic super power in Asia Pacific region. It finds its position to be under threat now.

Australia has very close ties with US and has always supported US in all its deciions right from Iraq invasion to War against terrorism. Austalia being a island continent has being wary of chinese might in asia Pacific waters. it had recently also raised concerns about chinese A-sat (anti-Satellite) test and its repurcussions. It defintiely wants to curb the power5s of China.

US has not found enough ground in Asian region and has been trying to contain growing might of china. it has also being wary of China's attitude towards Taiwan and has also decided to extend missile sheild over Taiwan too.

India has own concerns and has always overlooked geo-political equations. India's approach towards international politics hasbeen pathetic with unable derive gains from its realtions with other countries. Even now when Australia, Japan and US are tyring to enlist India for conatinament of China, India should hard bargain and try to get maximum benefits from the same. India is rarely leveraging its influence on Indian Ocean Rim Association (formed by India with countries surrounding Indian Ocean). neither has India given thought to leverage this pact to get Australia moving on export of uranium to India, which is of prime importance to India.

India should try to persuade Australia to change its stance on export of fissile material to India, which it has stopped after "Pokhran 1998". It should also try to push nuclear pact with australia also on the same lines as with US. Indian navy should play a greater role in Asia Pacific region. Indian navy has always been on forefront to contain piracy onhigh seas and has always helped australia for that.

India should not fall prey to "democracy' plea of these countries and leave a chance which could benefit them. every pressure tactics have to be used to deieve maximum gains.

Lets hope India understands this......

FUSION or FISSION, both are now within reach of India

2007-07-06T20:27:00.000+05:30

To produce nuclear power one needs huge cache of uranium & this is in short supply in India. India has been unsuccessfully trying to import uranium on large scale(though both Russia & USA supplied earlier, later USA stopped its supply after Pokhran 1974). India has for long been trying to develop Thorium fuel cycle as an alternate to Uranium based model for its nuclear power generation. I had referred to this in my post on Indo US nuclear deal.

India has made a spectacular development on this front. Bhabha Atomic Research Centre has been fore front in developing this technology for India. In an paper submitted by Indian Scientist V. Jagannathan and his team had submitted a paper on novel design of Fast Thorium Breeder Reactor (FTBR) being developed by at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) to the International Conference on Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems (ICENES) held June 9-14 in Istanbul.

This paper emphaises not only that fuel cycle on thorium is practical but that once the fast breeder reactor is build they can also produce both uranium 233 and plutonium from the same reactor. Their calculations show the sodium-cooled FTBR, while consuming 10.96 tonnes of plutonium to generate 1,000 MW of power, breeds 11.44 tonnes of plutonium and 0.88 tonnes of U-233 in a cycle length of two years.

Such an development can help India fulfill its most of the power needs. though this is an theoritical concept, IGCAR (Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research) has successfully built the 30 kW in 1996 named KAMINI. which uses indigenously developed mixed uranium 233 - AL as fuel. The uranium-233-Al fuel can be derived from irradiated thorium. Incidentally, it is the only reactor in the world using uranium 233 as fuel. Based on that experience, India is now in the process of commissioning 500 MWe prototype Fast breeder reactor at kalpakkam.

The reactor based on thorium are said to be safest reactors. with the publishing of the above paper India has proced itself to be pioneer in the field of safe reactors with alternative nuclear fuel like thorium. World has thrice as large as thorium deposit than uranium. India has second largest deposits of thorium in the world.

As a sign of twin success, Cabinet has ratified India's participation in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, that aims to demonstrate the scientific and technical feasibility of fusion power to produce energy.

The agreement for the same was signed earlier itself. Apart from India, the other ITER partners are the European Union, Japan, China, South Korea, Russia and the US. India will be investing around Rs. 2,500 crore for the same. India's joining ITER is a recognition of our scientific and technical capability in fusion energy.

Importance of Pervez Musharraf's Survival

2007-06-18T00:11:00.000+05:30

We have an saying An Intelligent enemy is better than Stupid Friend. Even a saying in Persian quotes " An intelligent enemy will help you rise while an ignorant/stupid friend will knock you down"

This is precisely why head of the state like Pakistan should be Pervez Musharraf and some fanatic being a puppet of Jihadis or extermists organisation like Taliban, al Qaeda or jaish-e-etc.
Though both the states i.e. India and Pakistan should strive for peaceful solution for their border disputes (I had earlier also outlined some solution for the same.), the enemity between the states will take quite a long time to reduce to tolerable levels. that would require reducing the influence of extermist organisation on the general public in Pakistan.

In the current situation in Pakistan, there is dearth of suitable/effective alternative to the leadership of Pervez Musharraf. Pervez Musharraf has tried his efforts towards reducing jihadi elements in its country by joning the "war against terrorism" by George Bush of America, a lot still needs to be done on that front. Benazir Bhutto has been residing in London for quite long time now fearing the arrests in her own country for her misdeeds while in regime. Nawaz sharif has been exiled to Saudi Arabia for his disloyalty to Pakistani army and can do nothing more than ocassional comment on Pakistani affairs (recently he claimed technically still to be Prime Minister and Rafiq tarar as President). No other person currently in the cabinet is as effiecient to be runing the country. Even the current prime minister Shaukat Aziz is a Banker by profession, worked with world bank earlier, not very proficient in politics (he initally was finance minister).

The only sore point in his rule was the way in which he has handled his continuance of his as head of state and implement his policies. I had compared his tenure with that of Vladimir Putin earlier. Recent bluffs called by Pervez Musharraf with Judiciary of Pakistan has got hit in face, but considering his hold on the state and the statemanship and political activism displayed by him earlier in his rule would make him prevail the current crisis also.

Along with that we also need to realise that Pakistan, though helping USA in its fight against terrorism, is also major source of terrorism in the world. Most number of terrorist organisation are fostered in Pakistan and find safe refuge there. Even Defense Secretary of USA Robert M. Gates had commented in the same words the contribution of pakistan towards extermist organisations.

BUT, in his absence, there is no formidable personality to take his place. This is also the reason why the leadership in USA is also hesitant to replace him or oust him from his place. No body can afford to allow the elements, who are responsible for deadly acts across the world to take over the power of the state. That would give rise to thousand more A Q Khans and like. Nuclear Proliferation would be order of the day and not only 9 states but more than 15-20 harbouring aims of nuclear power would find their hands on nuclear arsenal and technology of Pakistan.

We cannot afford to have an neighbour which is completely irresponsible having its head of state from the organisation like Al Qaeda or Taliban. Nuclear arsenal in those hands would make south asia a nuclear flashpoint. Nuclear war will seem to be eminent. Such leadership will have serious bearing on our ability to project our country as safe state to do business with.

All the above factors point to a single thing that in the absence of successorto Pervez musharraf, his stability is most important for India.

Spent fuel reprocessing & Indo US 123 Agreement

2007-06-10T21:05:00.000+05:30

A lot is already been said about Indo US Nuclear agreement also called as 123 agreement. India has been adamant about two clauses in the agreement on which both the countries not relenting.

The two clauses are 1) fuel supply guarantees and; 2) Reprocessing of spent fuel.

Today we will discuss reprocessing spent fuel and why is it necessary for India?

To understand that, we first need to understand what is spent fuel reprocessing?

(I will try to keep this in non-technical language. even I am an non-technical guy)

Spent Fuel Reprocessing: Almost all the reactors use Uranium or Plutonium as fuel for processing. After processing, the waste product of this processing is highly radioactive Uranium, which is very toxic to handle and dispose off. In pursuant to use even that processed fuel, Fast breeder reactors(or so called) are developed, which use this waste product generated by PHWRs(Pressurised Heavy water Reactors) i.e. uranium and Plutonium together as fuel. Fast Breeder Reactor produces Uranium as endproduct and the quantum of Uranium so produced is more than that used as input in the reactor. This gives the reactor its name as Breeder reactor.

As India has very less reserves of Uranium as compared to other nations, this technology of breeder reactors is very crucial to India. The Indo US nuclear agreement deals with supply of uranium to Indian reactors. Hence once India has received the fuel, it also needs to Reprocess the spent fuel so as to increase its potential of generating electricity. Breeder technology can vastly improve India potential of nuclear power generation. So the issue of Spent Fuel Reprocessing is very critical to India and canot compromise on the same.

Another aspect of reprocessing of spent fuel is that the output of breeder reactor is Uranium and not Uranium dioxide or any other compound, which makes it idal candidate for its use in making nuclear weapons also. US is concerned with reprocessed fuel being used for military purposes and probable proliferation.

My Recommendations:

India should not relent itself from its current stand for allowing reprocessing of spent fuel. But instead of just relying on US and other NSG (Nuclear Materials Supplier Group) for supply of fissile material for its power generattion and Nuclear weapons, India should also progress vociferously towards utilisation of thorium as alternate fuel.

India has been developing AHWR (Advanced Heavy Water Reactor) Technology which uses throrium as its fuel and some plutonim as its seed fuel. AHWR gives uranium as waste product which can later be used as feedstock for breeder reactors. India's progress and programme for development of thorium cycle can be viewed in document issued by Department of Atomic energy. AHWR is also said to be one of the safest reactor designs in the world as they use thorium as fuel which is less toxic as compared to Uranium 233 or 238 used by conventional reactors.

India has already designing a prototype AHWR reactor and should spend more money for its development. The AHWR more information can be found here.

India should also acout for more Uranium deposits in the country itself(Meghalay has maximum deposits of Uranium but its mining is mirred by local protests there).

India should try to assure US that the reprocessed fuel will be used only generation of power and will not be diverted for other uses.

India on the other hand should also push for similar agreements with other nations which can be bullied upon. Similar agreements with other nations will put some pressure on US to conclude this agreement at the earliest.

Arunachal Pradesh Neighbour's Envy, Owner's Pride

2007-06-07T22:10:00.000+05:30

India has besetted itself with problems like gujjar agitation and has been ignoring issues like border dispute with China over Arunachal Pradesh. India should not overlook such issues for petty politics within the country.

Arunachal Pradesh with the potential for hydro electric power 30,000 MW, huge mineral deposits, immense potential for exploration of rare earth minerals and other exotic metals.

China has already engulfed Tibet and has always claimed Arunachal Pradesh as part of China renouncing Mcmahon Line. China is already reaping gains of having tibet. They have found huge deposits of minerals in Himalayan Kingdom (Tibet) and also potential oil and gas deposits.

Recently Beijing denied VISA to an officer from Arunachal Pradesh has brought forward the vexed issue of border with china and Chinese aproach towards the dispute resolving. Earlier also when chinese premier Hu Jintao visited India, an chinese ambassador declared that AP (Arunachal Pradesh) was and will always be part of china and China will reclaim it from India. All the CBMs(confidence Building Measures) between two countries have been nullified by recent developments.

This also shows Chinese reluctance to dialogue and their stance on this issue irrespective of what talks are proceeding towards.

China has recently commissioned railway line linking Tibet with mainland and also developed huge infrastructure in the tibetan kingdom. This all shows Chinese resolve to wrest from India resource rich state like Arunachal Pradesh.

In 1962, when chinese premier had visited India, India had shown them how Indian defence industries are manufacturing pressure cookers for Indian public and shown them shallowness of Indian defence. India now again has talking of joint military exercises with china, which will again reveal them inefficiences of Indian defence.

China, progressing their geopolitical ambitions, have tried to provide military assistance to countries like Pakistan (having stance like Enemy's enemy is our friend), military regime in Bhutan and Myanmar. These all incidences shows hegemonistic ambitions of china and reflect it in their actions.

India while focussing on its economic achievments has been overlooking geopolitical developments in the region and has ignoring military buid up in its neigbouring countries.

India needs to be proactive in its approach towards regional and world politics or else it would be neighbour's pride and owner's envy and not vice versa.

Global Warming, India, China & West

2007-05-27T02:15:00.000+05:30

U.S. rejects German proposal to cut carbon emissions Chron.com - Houston Chronicle: "Fueling hate against a country while not knowing the facts. US & western countries are primarily responsible for the conditions now about green hopuse gases. countries like India & china have now started to produce large amounts of GHG while western copuntries have been doing so for decades. they should only be to bear the costs & not all.."

Even while considering the current facts, the per capita emission of GHGs by USA is 121.3 metric tonnes while countries like India have 1.19 metric tonnes and china 3.2 metric tonnes. On the fact that developed countries have been spewing gases for many decades in the past. Now when they have come to a point where they have already matured their economies, they cannot ask other developing countries to sacrfice their economic growth for GHGs for which they are not at all responsible.

US has now come up with new plan saying all the top 15 countries should reduce emissions. china on the other hand has stated that they will not sacrifice growth for reduction in gases.

NASA has made some statements questioning the reason behind global warming. It reminds me of book "state of Fear" by micheal crichton which questions the logic behind global warming itself.

Karachi in flames

2007-05-15T19:41:00.000+05:30

Never before in history of Pakistan has seen protest by the public against the ruling power. After the Musharraf suspended Mr. Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, the Chief Justice of Pakistan, this happens to be one of the most violent protest in pakistan till date. Mr Chaudhary had shown guts to test the mettle of Musharraf led government.

Musharraf in race to hold on to its post, has undone the popularity gained by him after his successful coup in 1999 dethroning Mr. Nawaz Sharif. I had earlier also tried to bring out the mistakes made by Prevez Musharraf in comparison to Vladimir Putin and had remarked that the wrong way chosen by musharraf to implement his policies.

In zeal to cling to the power and bring out requisite changes in the system, one first has to adhere to it. Pervez Musharraf has instead chosen to play with one of the basic foundations of efficient state i.e. Judiciary.

The situation can be more aptly described as "catch-22' for India.

The question now is not whether Mr chaudhary will be reinstated or not? But the million dollar question is whether public of pakistan be able to assert themselves and make themselves heard by their rulers? Or will this spark of new found enthusiasm in the minds of public bring a monumental change in the politics of the state of Pakistan?

Both the results need to be analysed very carefully. It must be noted that to resolve any dispute with the neighbours, a stable regime is always warranted. One cannot reason with suicide bombers and expect them to thnk rationally. So stability of Pakistan is of utmost importance to India. In the event of pakistan's public unrelenting to the pressure ay spark of revolution in the country, which may lead to civil war. This would ultimately weaken the hold of rational people over the nuclear assets of Pakistan. With Persons like A. Q. Khan still being around, we cannot risk nuclear assets falling into rogue hands.

On the other hand, if the government is successful in stopping the violence and assert its decision over the people of Pakistan, this will permanently subdue the efforts of the public to bring democracy in the country. This will ensure that whoever rules Pakistan, will always rule with an iron hand and our neighbourhood will always remain an turbulent one.

LTTE & their blackmail

2007-05-01T15:01:00.000+05:30

In 2005 when Sri-Lankan government alleged that LTTE (Liberation of Tamil tigers Ealam) has built airstrip and have also acquired 2 small aircraft. It was alleged that LTTE had acquired 2 Czech built Ziln Z-143 aircraft. Nobody would have imagined that it could be such a serious threat 2 years later.

LTTE at that time had warned that if Sri-Lankan government tried to bomb that airstrip, the peace process comes to an end and bloody war will follow. Though Indian and other international intelligence had detected the presence of LTTE personnel taking training in local flying clubs in Europe.

LTTE not only build airstrip but also vindicated the claim that they had acquired aircraft and also carried out three successful attacks on Sri-Lankan terrritory.

The stance by LTTE in 2005 while peace process was on and the attacks later on using the same airforce shows the farcical nature of the peace process LTTE was adhering to. It proves that they never were serious about the peace in the region.

India should that fact into consideration while dealing with LTTE in the future.

Recently Australian Foreign minister Alexander Downer accepted the fact that some amount were being raised intheir country to finance the operations of LTTE. He then terming that as small quantities does not diminish the significance of that fact.

Western governments have always being critical of policies of governments of Countries in Indian sub-continent but never ever gave thought to what was their contribution to the terror in this part of the world.

Recently some of lawmakers in Britain claimed that LTTE are not terrorists. They are supposedly thinking of lifting ban on LTTE imposed in 2001. European seemed to be ignorant of the latest developments on this front. The behaviour of LTTE does not in anyway indicate that LTTE will settle for peaceful solution.

LTTE recently also raided Indian ships and stole huge amounts of foodgrains. there have been instances where large amounts of arms and their spares recovered from Indian soil points to the level of infiltration of LTTE in our country. India allowing LTTE to operate in our country could cost us very dearly considering the fact of Assasination of Rajiv Gandhi by the same LTTE.

Emergence of LTTE as powerbase should India to rethink its strategy of being a passive spectator of Sri-lankan crisis. some of the TN leaders expressing views that taking support of LTTE is not wrong shows the lack of any opinion and thinking on this serious matter.

India should better take a stand now or face the consequences of unabashed behaviour of LTTE later.

INS Vikramaditya..... & Indian Naval Force

2007-04-29T20:23:00.000+05:30

Russian aircraft carrier Gorkhshov rechristened as INS Vikramaditya will now join Indian naval force only in 2010. Last heard the the retofitting being done by Russia will take some more time, it seems they had underestimated the repairs to be made. As per one of the defence website, they underestimated the length of cabling required by almost 20,000 km.

India already has another aircraft carrier INS Vikrant, INS viraat is decommissioned. even INS Vikrant will be decommisioned in 2012. India desparately needs to upgrade its naval force.

India is also in the process of building new indigeneous aircraft carrier of INS Vikrant class of about 37, 500 tonnes. the building has started in 2005 itself and will be complete by 2011. Two more aircraft carriers wer planned in 2007 but the status is not known whether the process has started or not?

China has also 3 carriers. India had sometime back inducted 3 stealth frigates to its force and also 2 INS delhi class ships. 3 more are planned in INS delhi class.
India really needs to speed up the building process. An effective naval foce is an essential in the days when most of the trad is done through high seas....

A really effective force coupled with associations like Indian Ocean Rim Association, of which India is founder can do wonders...

ISRO....coming of Age

2007-04-28T20:05:00.000+05:30

The next satellite to be launched by ISRO would be an Israeli satellite in the month of August. This is the same satellite which Israelis had contracted with ISRO around two years back. It is an spy satellite.

The reliance of highly efficient Israeli forces in Indian launch Vehicle vindicates the technological superiority of PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle). This commercial launch will increase the credibility of Indian Launch Vehicles in the international satellite launch market. This will lead to more demand for launch facilities from India.

India is also on the verge of completion of erection of second launch pad at Sriharikota. This will increase the availability of launch facilities in India.

India also needs to involve Private sector in the manufacture of launch vehicles and satellites. Some days back, ISRO Chairman, Mr. Madhavan Nair had said that though the Indian satellite and launch industry has grown three fold, ISRO has not increased the workforce substantially, this proves that the private sector participation has increased and still more is envisaged and expected.

This could come as a boon to the India as the spillover effect of the new technologies by private sector in the commercial arena could spur local industry as a whole.

We now need wait & watch, what kind of & to what extent Private Public partnership will Isro involve.

AGNI III & SUPERPOWER STATUS

2007-04-17T00:09:00.000+05:30

After successful testing Agni III, it is tipped that India has the capability to produce true ICBM (Inter-Continental Ballistic missile) with the range of 5,500 km & more.

Alongwith that concerns are also being raised whether the India will continue its development of long range missiles in the face of Nuclear Pact with US in 2005. Former DRDO chief K. Santhanam says, India in its wildest dreams does not plan to be global superpower, but where regional superiority is concerned, they definitely would like to have effective deterrent against its backdrop of war history.

Is our former chief justified in saying that we do not aspire to be best or greatest in the world? are we really so afraid of other powers like US that we would do whatever pleases them and nothing beyond that? former chief's commenst reflect the thinking of the government when he was working for DRDO (Defence Research & Development Organisation). This necessarily does not mean our aspirations have not soared.

We need to give a serious thought to our status in global context....

Vladimir Putin Vs Pervez Musharraf

2007-04-12T19:03:00.000+05:30

Nobody would dare to compare Russian Prez with that of Pakistan's prez. But some interesting facts,

Musharraf took over reins of Pakistan on October 12, 1999 and declared president of pakistan on June 20, 2001.

Vladimir Putin became acting president of Russia on December 31, 1999 and elected as president on May 07, 2000.

Both the presidents presided over their countries when their respective countries were in bad phase.

Both of them have military background. Putin is an ex-KGB man while musharraf is still chief of military forces.

Both of them wanted to reform their countries and bring prosperity.

Putin had two terms of his presidency to reform his country, which he tried to resurrect his nation using petro dollars.

Musharraf too wanted to reform,which he tried( to limited extent) by embracing war on terrorism.

For both the prez, time was insufficient to implement their policies and achieve their goals.

So what did they both do to retain their aims even after they relinquish their posts.

Vladimir Putin honouring his Duma will stepdown from his post and hand over the reins to the successor. But while doing this, he has implemented 3 year budgeting with focus on long term goals for 10-15 years so that even after he steps down his policies are implemented.

While Mr. (sarcasm) Pervez Musharraf has tried to play with judiciary so that he is able to retain his powers henceforth too. This action of his will lead to people losing faith in him and his policies,which could be disastrous.

The Russian prez policies can be read at timesonline or Times of India

Untangling Kashmir Mess

2007-04-05T15:49:00.000+05:30

What appears to be is that the Kashmir entanglement holding up the potential gains of SAARC. The animosity between India & Pakistan has spilled over in SAARC which has led to its factional politics at SAARC. Trade within SAARC is 2% of their member GDP while that for South Asia is 20%. The official trade between India & Pakistan is of $ 400 Million, while the unofficial trade is in the range of $ 2-2.2 billion. The potential of trade between two countries is $ 6.6 billion. The hate-factor between two nations has cost the citizens of both countries very dearly.

The root of animosity lies in the Kashmir problem. In last 50 yrs both the countries have tried to achieve political gains for themselves in the regional & international arena by leveraging Kashmir problem. Resolution of this problem can lead very outstanding results for whole of Indian subcontinent. But with the current arguments, neither of countries, without budging, from their stands can resolve this issue.

Many people have in fact suggested and tried various solutions for this issue. None of which has made considerable progress from the fact that common borders have always led to increase of tensions rather decreasing it. To diffuse the tension between two countries, we need to create insulation between two countries, which not only discharges the tension but also allows them to reap benefits by contributing to that insulation.

My Recommendations:

Though I believe, Pakistan has forcefully occupied some part of Indian state Jammu & Kashmir and also handed over part of Kashmir (Aksai Chin) to China, taking back of that will involve huge losses to both the sides. We may even risk a nuclear war, which will lead to total annihilation of Pakistan and make India vulnerable to even states like Bangladesh & Sri lanka.

My seven point agenda is as follows:

Let the Pakistan and India have their own territories now under their control. Let that be converted to International boundaries.
The Pak Occupied Kashmir (also known as PoK) be declared as separate state with its own jurisdiction & be called as Azad Kashmir hence forth.
India & Pakistan, both will not interfere in the functioning of Azad Kashmir.
Azad Kashmir to be developed on the lines of Switzerland, which has no army of its own, free of all international laws.
It will be responsibility of India and Pakistan to protect Azad Kashmir from any external aggression.
Both India & Pakistan will get Azad Kashmir UN membership.
A tripartite memorandum needs to be signed stating that anybody violating constitution, integrity & freedom of Azad Kashmir will be prosecuted by both countries jointly.
Let Azad Kashmir be tax haven and all the trade between India & Pakistan be carried out through Azad Kashmir only. That can be the source of income for Azad Kashmir.

These measures may lead to Azad Kashmir acting as a buffer between two countries and also at the same time developing that into very powerful state, which in fact would be owned by both of them. Azad Kashmir will act as lubricant in the friction between India & Pakistan. No aggression pact will also carry credibility in international for and bring in moolah from the whole world itself. Developing on the lines of Swiss would make it financially secure.

There is a study group, which tries to look into the problems of Kashmir & possible solutions for it. More can be found about them at this website http://kashmirstudygroup.com/

The above idea is mere outline of my though process and can be more refined to suit the exact conditions there.

Indian Aerospace Force 2020

2007-03-23T23:36:00.000+05:30

What are the India's objectives in forming Aerospace Command? Will India be able to make that? What are the obstacles in the path for achieving those goals? Do the Indian Airforce have that kind of capability to run an Aerospace Command? whether the India's strategic moves are aligned towards our goals?

All these and much more has been discussed in the article by Pramod Buravalli on indiadefence.com.
It discusses the current Indian Airforce demand for strategic fighters be that F16/18, MIG 35, Grippen or Rafale. It discusses the importance of choosing right kind of Fighter planes. Joint development of 7th generation unmanned fighter vehicles and many other things.

A really effective article.....

Commercial Orbital Transportation Services

2007-03-22T16:57:00.000+05:30

Commercial Orbital Transportation popularly referred to as "COTS" could be an exciting prospect for Indian space Industry.

NASA's single space shuttle flight costs more than $500 million and apart from that the shuttle is going to retire after 2010. This has prompted NASA to look for alternative sources to launch cargo to the International Space Station.

In august 2006, NASA awarded COTS to two private entities viz SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler. SpaceX has twice tried unsuccessfully to launch rocket in space and whereas Kistler is yet to test its launch vehicle.

COTS will be used to transport cargo to International Space Station(ISS). ISS is located approximately 360 km above earth usually called as Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Currently, the transport of cartgo to ISS is done using Russian rocket Soyuz, which can carry payload of 7.5 tonnes in LEO.

Indian launch vehicle PSLV can launch 1.5 tonne satellites in sun synchronous Orbit which has about 600-800 km altitude. while GSLV I can launch satellites weighing upto 5 tonnes in LEO. GSLV III is under process of development which is touted to have capability to launch 10 tonne satellites in LEO.

My Recommendations:

Space Launch industry is growing by leaps and bounds. considering the number of private sector companies like burt rutan's spaceshipone, Bigelow's inflatable orbital outposts and spaceX, the race is becoming more exciting with the fact that commercial viability is being achieved.

India on the lines of Brahmos, should have a joint venture with Russian space agency. The outline of the joint venture would be as follows:

India will launch all the small & medium satellites of Russia at a zero profit basis.
Russia will outsource all the small & medium launches to ISRO.
India will use both of the launch pads(one at sriharikota & other which is under development) for Russian satellite launches at priority basis.
Russia will concentrate its energies in developing advanced manned space vehicles.
The joint venture entity will bid for COTS for NASA.
In return Russia will provide docking tech to isro to incorporate in GSLV.
GSLV will be used for COTS.
India will provide for 75% of the funding requirments of the entity.

This entity will help to Russia and India both to tap the emerging space industry. Russia will also get funding for its cash strapped Space industry.

India will benefit technologically and reduce its time required to develop techs for manned space exploration.

Orbital Outposts....Idea gaining ground

2007-03-17T19:59:00.000+05:30

A lot of activity is brewing on the lunar race and space tourism. All the countries having requisite technology are in the plans(either short term or long term) to setup a base either in moon or mars. The lunar race comes after a lull of almost 35 years when US first launched its mission to moon. That was the peak of the cold war. The recent developments however are not the cold war race, rather a show of technological prowess and space tourism is encouraged on its commercial viability.

The race to set up a colony on moon has over shadowed the fact that humans still have to perfect the technology to safe long space journeys. Rather we need to focus our energies which can give us some short term successes, which would boost our efforts for long term plans.
Already the ISS (International Space Station) has proved that its is very costly to even host a facility in LEO (low Earth Orbits). we are still unable to even service ISS efficiently. The space shuttles even after flying for so many years cannot be completely reliable for transportation services. The lunar race will rather put financial strain on all the participant nations. When we are still not able to service ISS, is it worthwhile to use those energies for lunar race, just for the reason that it holds water. The rational given for such a race is that it will augment the resources of the humans. are the costs involved in such expeditions justified when we still need not even know about our own planet completely.

If we really feel that the space crunch on our planet can be solved by further expeditions in space, we need to look out alternative low cost options rather than facing uncertain issues in lunar race.

My Recommendations :
The outward expansion of humans will be possible only if we master the art of space travel, conquer the fears of space difficulties, remove the limitations of physics in development of inter-stellar travel. This all will be possible not by launching a mission to moon or mars but rather perfecting the tech to reach low orbits effectively and efficiently.
We should have more low earth posts like ISS where more developmental work can be done and technologies for further travel could be developed. we could have many benefits by having an orbital outposts like :

Able to more efficiently observe the incoming dangerous asteroids or meteorites.
The development of physics in an completely new environment, which will help us understand space more better and improve our instruments for further travel.
Mining of incoming meteorites for resources.
Space tourism can help to develop more efficient technologies to launch hman in low eartn orbits by involving private sector. (which is already happening). what further can be done is part the profits of such space tourism companies needs to be shared incommon pool so as develop further technologies.
Space crunch will be solved with less resources as compared to costs involved for setting up bases on moon or mars.
Space travel from space to moon or other planets will be very cheap as most energy is required to escape from earth's gravity which will almost missing while travelling from one space-point to other.
Solar energy can be more efficiently converted into energy as no atmosphere is present.
Development of fuels and rockets in space will help earth get rid of GHG(green house gases) generated from launching of these rockets on earth.
Such colonies will also help to deflect some (though miniuscle) of the suns ultraviolet rays and help to cool the warming earth.

I see a ring of orbital space colony which will look like saturn's ring from far off. If anybody has seen movie called "Starship Troopers" can understand what kind of space colony am I envisaging.

Well all the above stated developments will take some time but if the resources now used for moon and mars are diverted towards these causes, then the amount of time required can scaled down dramatically. The foremost requirement is to involve private sector in this so as help reduce costs.

If the world does not rise to these facts let it be so, India should instead focus on the above said achievements so that it can reap the benefits and also make profits from it. If we have a orbital posts, they can be good stopover for flights to further travels. So instead using our energies for long travel, lets harness it towards more relevant objectives.....

India & China's pollution affecting World

2007-03-07T16:03:00.000+05:30

A recent study by an Texas A & M researcher Mr. Renyi zhang, with the funding from National Science Foundation & NASA has proved(?) that severe pollution from Far east is affecting the weather of the world.

More details of the same can be found here

My Assessment:

A lot is now-a-days being said about the global warming and many nations are also readying themselves to avoid the onslaught of the disastrous repurcussions expected to follow from it. This is precisely why Kyoto protocol came into existence. This protocol is designed to limit the gree house gases (GHG) emissions so as to limit their effect on the weather. About 169 countries and other governmental entities have signed this agreement.

But the very organisation and the country in which they are located i.e America is not the signatory to this protocol. It is an established fact that the very process of industralisation was not started by the developing countries like India and China but nations like Britain & America.

Now these very nations are opposed to emission controls and are also funding research which focus only on developing countries and their responsibilities.

Where were these emission controls when these countries polluted the most? Early industralisation was made on use of coal and diesel and that too when efficient means were not available to use them... At that time the emission was most severe and not now.

Even the studies of emissions and their effect on the weather is done now and all the data pertaining to previous periods is a suspect as reliable instruments were not available at that time.

So I feel that these studies are being funded to form a popular voice against the developing nations which are now posing a threat to developed nations and the focus is being diverted from the responsibilites of the developed nations who have been affecting the weather for not decades like developing nations but for centuries. Those century old emissions are having a cumulative effect now.

countries like USA are worried about the possible financial impact of emission control on their economies, so trying to hold India & China responsible for their own irresponsible behaviour in past..

To counter such subversive tactics, we also should be funding various studies & researches which would focus on the impact of emissions by western countries on the world weather.

Hope our national governments will look into covert warfare done by developed nations and take appropriate action to conter it.

Private Armies

2007-03-06T19:47:00.000+05:30

Quoting Russian news website "Russian Oil Majors seek to form own Police Force". Well can this be really termed as the adventures of capitalism in modern Russia? Will this lead to same siuation we had around 200 years ago? OR is this just a paranoidal thought reminding an Indian like me of the British invasion and not really repeat of the history?

These questions need to be probed more. More and More corporate entities are now recruiting armed personnel to thwart the dangers arising to their enterprise in these uncertain times. Does this reflect the strength of these corporations or the failure of the so called governments of those nations?

If it is the disappointing failure of today's governments, are we ready to face the consequences of such an endeavours by the corporations and then the resulting backlash from it?

lets think a bit more on it....

NATIONAL BUSINESSES

2007-02-06T10:46:00.000+05:30

Robert Peston of BBC news makes a case for encouraging national businesses. It also tries to explain the rational of why, though CORUS being a larger company was acquired by an Indian or rather foreign company.

Even the comments to the article gives insight into working of an British brain......

The article can be found at BBC NEWS.

Please comment...

General Gareyev Says Russia Changing Its Military Doctrine

2007-01-19T10:41:00.000+05:30

Academy of Military Sciences is holding a conference on 20th January and the President of the organisation, General Gareyev will be presenting a report on new Russian military doctrine. In an interview with Viktor Litovkin, the General has made some interesting observations which could have an far reaching implications on the world order and also gives insights into the thinking of an superpower, its views about the other nations, their allies and also their supposed enemies. It also provides insight into how to frame an policy document which can have considerable effect on the other interested parties. The detailed Interview can be sought at following address
General Gareyev Says Russia Changing Its Military Doctrine

some of the interesting quotes are :

"We should define potential ways of using our armed forces and other troops, as well as the types of wars and armed conflicts that we could encounter today and up to the year 2015."

my comments:

this shows the farsightedness of the concerned person/state whilst framing such policies. It seems Russia has made considerable study on the matter.

"It is necessary to avoid excessive emphasis on politics and ideology, instead concentrating on practical efforts to build up defenses."

my comments:

This comment brings out the fallacy of being ideologically correct and failing on practical fronts, the kind of diplomacy India has been promoting. We should look for practical and realist ideas while avoiding into getting any type of ideological controversy. The General by expressing these views makes clear that all the ideas, logic are for them and they are not made for ideas or logic. It makes pretty clear that the security of state is of utost importance and above all other things...

"Ecological and energy factors will be the main causes of political and military conflicts in the next 10-15 years. Some states will try to control the energy resources of others, as happened in Iraq, while others will have no choice but to resist or die"

my comments:

The former part of the above comment relates to cuurent conflicts in the world and also its airs its views as how it has interpreted the Iraq war. It clearlr says that iraq war is not interpreted as "war of liberation" as war to control resources. The later part of the comment is directed towards US saying that the same kind of tactics cannot be used against them. Russia, itself, is a major producer of hydrocarbons and recently has been trying to wrest control from western companies. It has by hook or crook tried to get hold of oil companies operating in Russia. Kremlin indirectly through this document and its actions against foreign companies tries to imply that Russia can'tbe bullied by western powers and they cannot take control of russian resources.

This comment gives insight into mind of superpower and its view towards other superpower.

"Needless to say, poverty is not the only cause of terrorism. North Korea and Cuba are poor countries, but they have not produced terrorists. Those who attacked the U.S. in 2001 were far from being poor."

my comments;

This directly criticises the US diplomacy and atittude towards Islamist extremism and their repurcussions on US.

"It is perfectly obvious that not a single serious issue in the modern world can be resolved without Russia. We don't need confrontation with the U.S., or with the West, or the East."

my comments:

this emphaises that Russia is still a superpower and also that it needs to be consulted while making any decision about world order. At this juncture, I would like to draw attention to recent veto exercised by Russia and China while passing an motion on myanmmar government by UN Secuirty council. But alongwith that, in the same breath, It also says that it does not want any confrontation with any of the western powers. This will be further discussed below.

"It is abundantly clear that there is no alternative to a multi-polar world with major centers of influence (the U.S., European Union, Russia, China, and India). "

my comments:

This sentence alongwith other things in the same para makes abundantly clear the effect of growing influence of India on the world forum...(catering self ego...)

The following para makes clear that the western policies will lead to confrontations with many nations and that Russia is more than ready to fill the gap created by US in managing the wolrd affairs(read natural resources). Russia has at the appropriate time made comments about their doctrine. It tries to create a passionate image about them in the minds of the anti-western powers while also making clear that national interests are most vital to them and they would be protected at any costs.

Further in the interview, General says that growing influence of NATO over soviet era nations like Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgystan will not be tolerated and that the influence will be termed as infringements by western powers over their turf. it also further says that, Russia may retaliate for the same. Recent actions by Russia over fuel supply should corroborate the doctrine of russia. It also implies that though the doctrine is in public realm now, but it already is in works by the kremlin and effectively pursuing it also.

"Secondly, the use of nuclear arms and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction continue to threaten Russia. The nuclear weapons of all major nuclear powers are ultimately designed to be used against Russia, whether we want to admit it or not. In this context, the task of curbing a potential aggressor by means of a strategic nuclear deterrent is becoming more important than in the past."

my comments:

According to me, these are the strongest ever comments made by any nation ever. It tries to imply that all the other nations other than Russia or Russian confederates are enemies of Russia and Russia could use nuclear weapons against any of those. This shows the strong hand of Russia.

Further replying to "possible first strike using of nuclear arms", it justifies that doctrine very convincingly. It clarifies that such weapons cannot used as tactical weapons to neutralize opponents like those in chechnya or any other enemy using proxy wars but will be used with utmost care and while it is attacked by conventional forces on all fronts. it further says that it could not such an conventional force so as to effectively guard its huge expanse. This it says needs an backing of effective nuclear deterrent.

This comment also shows why though western powers emphasize on non-proliferation but try to advance their own weapons. US is already in the process of modernizing its nuclear weaponry and he contracts for the Trident nuclear systems have been already awarded. UK also is in the same process.

Let anybody profess anything about disarmament the nuclear weapons are here to stay till it has not destroyed all of us.

Further Analysis:

What does this document reveal more? we need to analyse this from a situation where in future when all the major powers are locked into confrontation with other nations and next big war is looming over heads, who will side with whom!!??

Yes!!!! that canbe predicted.....Lets discuss that in our next post..........

Turbulent Neighbour, Unsafe Borders.....

2007-01-12T22:33:00.000+05:30

Iajuddin Ahmed, President of Bangladesh, declared state of emergency after the current turmoil in country, which witnessed huge surge in pre-poll violence. It has come after UN suspended all support for elections in wake of boycott of elections by the opposition. Even European Union has withdrawn its poll observation mission.

The situation has become more chaotic in our neighbouring country inrecent years and this bores significant concerns for us as the chaotic neighbour can be source potential problem to us. In case of Bhutan, it helped us by flushing out ULFA from their country, which was really noteworthy. The same course of action cannot be expected from country like Bangladesh which has embroiled itself in internal strife and chaos. A country which has huge resource of natural gas and possibly of oil also is in a pitiful state.

Though India has refrained from interfering into matters of other states, it should take some strategic view of the current situation there.

As you look at the map of Bangladesh, it is covered with land on its three sides by us and the fourth side faces ocean, the bay which is completely dominated by India. A small thorn in this area is not warranted as the country has been of no importance to us. None of its actions have been beneficial to us, infact they have been detriment to us.

My course of Action:

while taking any decision about Bangladesh, we need to analyse all the factors affecting us and try to derive maximum gains from it. The positive points about Bangladesh are its only and only one thing that is gas reserves. Bangladesh has huge proven gas reserves of about 11 tcf (trillion cubic feet). Though, experts feel still lot more gas remains to be discovered in the region, the country can be in the eyes of lot of other energy deficient countries like China. The negative points list is bit long with hostility of current political leadership towards India, internal chaos, incompetent leaders. The other major negative point is huge flooding of the country in monsoon. It is 75 % submerged while in floods.

So if India ever decides to takeover the country, there would always be more than profit from it. The best possible action would be to take over the benefits and leave the problems to be tackled by themselves.

India should enter into a bilateral arrangement with Bangladesh, where India should guarantee market to the Bangladeshi oil and gas for next 25 years at the predetermined, negotiated price. In return for that India will develop all of its oil and gas fields and all the reqisite infrastructure for it. Indi would issue aid to the country in the form of soft Rupee loans for next 30 years for developing the infrastructure. The same would be repaid by the country from its earnings from sale of oil and gas. The whole agreement has to be set up in such a way that the only currency to be used for transazction between India and Bangladesh would be Indian Rupee. India would provide forex services to their companies, if required by them to trade with other countries.

In this way, the whole development of country will be dependent on us and as all the market for their oil and gas is held by us, we wouldbe able to dictate terms to them. As the trade between them and us would be in Indian Rupee, India would be infact exporting our currency to pay its debts to Bangladesh. As Bangladesh would find ready market for its gas-produce, they will place huge demand for Indian goods, as they will readily have Indian rupee reserves to pay for it.

25-30 years arrangement for oil and gas will solve some procurement problems for future demand for energy and energy equivalents. We will have some kind of buffer in form of Bangladesh. As the oil and gas fields will be developed by Indian companies(though in participation with local companies there), we will have some kind of reserves for us. Bangladesh will be our natural ally as its development will depend on ours and we can thus buy our safety and also some of energy concerns.

Already we are finding huge reserves in Bay of Bengal and we cannot ignore the safety of that region for our own benefit.

Though the scheme above canbe still more refined, it is by product of crude thinking of my own. Hope India starts some strategic moves and establishes itself(firmly) as global power (and not as only a regional power).

One Launch, 4 Parts & One Step to Moon

2007-01-10T20:03:00.000+05:30

ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) today(January 10, 2007) successfully conducted launch of it tenth flight of their workhorse launch vehicle PSLV from SHAR, Shriharikota. This launch was unique from many aspects for Indian scientists and also an great leap in their faith in indigenous Space Technology.

The homegrown PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) successfully launched India' CARTOSAT - 2 and Space Capsule Recovery Experiment (SRE) -1, Indonesia's LAPAN-TUBSAT and Argentina's PEHEUNSAT. Cartosat had payload of 680 kg, SRE-1 of 550 kg, LAPAN of 56 kg and PEHEUNSAT of 6 kg.

PSLV has made 10 consecutive(including this one) successful launches since 1994. PSLV was actually designed to launch one tonne payload satellites but its capability has been gradually scaled up. The current flight had total payload of about 1292 kg. Its first stage is one of the largest solid propellant boosters in the world. The fourth stage's propellant has been reduced from 2.5 tonnes to 2 tonnes. The first stage's weight has also reduced by 500 kg. This all has led to sugnificant improvement in its payload capacity.

Cartosat was injected into high polar SSO after 981.3 seconds, 45 seconds later 6 kg PEHEUNSAT was injected. 120 sec later SRE got separated and finally 190 seconds later TUBSAT mounted on fourth stage was separated.

For the first time DLA (Dual Launch Adapter) was used for launching the satellites.

Cartosat carries PAN (Panchromatic Camera) with the spatial resolution better than one metre and swath of 9.6 km. The satellite can be steered upto 45 degrees along as well as across the track. The data from it can be used in LIS (Land Information Systems) and GIS (Geographical Information Systems).

SRE is intended to demonstrate the technology of an orbiting platform for performing experiments in microgravity conditions. After completion of experiments, the capsule will be de-orbited and recovered after splashing it into bay of bengal. The results of this experiment will useful for further manned missions to space and use of Resusable rockets for launching satellites, which will immensely reduce the cost of launching. More information is available of ISRO website.

This launch of today has vindicated the technological prowess of India and also proved that inspite of sanctions by developed nations, India can pursue its space ambitions on it own mettle.

This will also re-establish ISRO and its commercial arm Antirx in commercial launch market and bring in valuable forex for the country.

Countdown to PSLV C7

2007-01-04T16:52:00.000+05:30

On Janurary 10 morning, ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) will be launching PSLV C7 from sriharikota launch range, which, if successful, will catapult India into the league of select nations who have the capability to launch reusable launch vehicle. it would be controlled through Satish Dhawan Space Centre located at Sriharikota.

PSLV launch will include Cartosat-2, used for mapping of earth & environment, two foreign satellites- Indonesia's Lupan & Argentina's Pehuensat. It will also carry experimental reusable launch vehicle. This experimental RLV is to demonstrate the RLV technology and further refine it. This RLV would orbit earth for about 10-15 days then would brought down. Initially, it would land using parachutes and splash into ocean, later the tech would be further refined to make it land like an aircraft.
Successful completion of this mission would mean India can now lower costs of launching satellites and also look forward to manned missions which require such critical technology. Further missions of ISRO include Chandrayaan, manned mission to space and also unmanned mission to Mars.

UNEDITED SADDAM HANGING VIDEO

2007-01-03T14:17:00.001+05:30


This is the actual hanging of Saddam taking with a mobile phone video camera. Got this on google video website. posting for your reference

India's perception in GLOBAL Business Circles

2006-12-21T15:44:00.000+05:30

In Economic Times dated December 21, 2006, wherein an interview with Karri Kaitue, Chief executive of Outo Kumpu, Finland based stainless steel major, answering to the question "What is the perception about Indian steel companies in Europe after Tata bid for Corus?" said

"India's rapid economic growth is recognised in Europe and the Tata group is respected. In the case of Tata Steel, the perception in the industry is that the company is among the low-cost producers. We do not know what ultimately happens, but I do not expect any resistance in Europe to Tata's taking over Corus. The Mittal controversy over Arcelor has also been settled amicably. While the company is not Indian, L N Mittal is from India and this has made a difference to the perception of the country in business circles."

what was karri exactly meaning when he said "difference to the perception of the country"?

Karri would have meant that NOW Indians are being taken seriously in the International business arena. This could also mean that International (read 'western') business circles compute non-Indian companies run by Indians as Indian and that the gulf that earlier existed between Indians and Non-Indians now also extends to the companies managed by them.

This process of thought can mean that the racist views run deep into the mindsight of all the western countries and is prevalent irrespective of nature of activity by the people there. Let the activity be business or anyother purpose, the racist views still prevail.

My Analysis:

Karri while talking to media had been very dipomatic and tried to remain politically correct wherever possible. The main intention of the interview, it seems, was to introduce the company to the people in India, here. But a small inapropriate combination of wording can sometimes reveal the true feelings or the general view prevalent. The same thing happened with Karri also.

The interview if read correctly gives the impression that Mr. Karri is consciously driving the topic towards products of their company and avoiding all the other questions.

Lets hope that he really meant what he said and what he said was not what it meant.

Indo-US nuclear deal

2006-12-18T23:49:00.000+05:30

George Bush today signed Indo-US nuclear pact and made it a law. In India, congress would have rejoiced but BJP,who actually put the founding stone for this deal, wants the government to reject the deal, while the Left seems to be unhappy over the over-enthusiasm(so called) shown by congress government to usher in this deal.

Meanwhile, Indian scientists have come together to voice their concerns over the deal. Their main contention has been their views have not been taken into consideration, while entering in this deal. They are also unhappy ovewr various conditions in the deal like India will have to report to US over their non-proliferation regime, which they feel as unwarranted as India should not be answerable to anyone for their own policies. Deal further states that India will not conduct any new nuclear weapons testing, which scientists is wrong as mere two tests cannot be enough to induct nuclear weapons into mainstream military use, and that too when developed nations have done scores of tests before actively inducting in defence forces.

Deal also says that India should align its non-proliferation regime/policies with that of US, which is totally unacceptable as India as being equally democractic country as US is, should have its own agenda, purpose and policy towards nuclear diplomacy in international arena.

The deal though has been made as an act in US, seems to find tough ground in India.

WARM ties from COLD Japan

2006-12-17T20:23:00.000+05:30

Indian PM Dr. Manmohan Singh's visit to Japan is being termed has highly successful one in economic ties with the country while a moderately successful one in regards to Indo-US nuclear deal.

Japan has committed to create a state of art freight corridor between Mumbai and Delhi but with a caveat that the same will be majorly used by Japanese companies setting up shop in India. They feel that Indian infrastructure is not so good to support their industries, so they want to build their own infrastructure in the country. In a way it is good as this will set a benchmark in the quality and all the other infrastructure being built in the country would try match its standards. Japan has also committed a FII investments of about $ 10 billion while FDI of around $ 2 billion is expected.
Japan has being non-committal to Indian nuclear deal with US and has adopted the policy if wait-n-watch. Japan has kept same kind of attitude towards Indian in nulcear matters since nuclear test at Pokhran in May 1998.

The moot question is why Japan on one hand is very co-operative with India in economic matters while has taken defensive stance in matters concerning Nuclear diplomacy? That too in the period when Japan itself has for the first time in its history after world war II created defence ministry. It is period when it has also not shied away from accepting the fact they do possess the technology to produce nuclear weapons but have also mentioned their intentions of not doing so.

My Analysis:

US always had the policy of using one country against the other to achieve its goals. Lately it has tried to influence China with all sorts of things. It also tried to use Taiwan against China but soon realised that tiny Taiwan is no match for formidable China. It then has pursued that goals by bringing in India into the picture. It also wants to rein in India's global aspirations and tame them for their own interests. Hence it has started showering India with goodies like nuclear deal and offer for various military equipment like AWACS and Fighter planes.
In the aftermath of Nuclear tests at Pokhran in May 1998, Japan ineffectively used the policy of sanctions. Indian economy has found to be resilient to global shocks. This has lead Japan rethink its policy towards India. They now want to ride the wave of reforms in India and also want to have influence over India. Hence, they are entering into rapidly growing Indian economy thereby creating a potential influence over our decision making and also reaping the benefits of growing economy.

India should awaken to the risks of getting into deals with countries like Japan. I am not saying that it should not enter into such deals. Rather, it should take the benefit of its grwoing clout inthe international arena but also create checks and balances to negate the ensuing risks in such kind of deals.

Indian Age of Spacetech

2006-12-16T00:01:00.000+05:30

According to Sources, India is going to test a Reusable Launch Vehicle in the coming PSLV launch scheduled in the second week of January. The forthcoming launch of PSLV(Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) is scheduled between 10-15 january 2007. It will be carrying three satellites, Cartosat II, a foreign made satellite on commercial basis and an experimental space recovery capsule.

All the major countries will be minutely tracking the Indian progress on this front. This technological demonstrator, if successful, will catapult India into the select states who are having this kind of capability. Unlike China, the reentry technology and related technologies are indigenously developed.

India already has a robust PSLV tech to launch satellites in the Polar Synchronous orbit. The PSLV has the capability to launch satellites weighing upto 1.5 ton. India is also in the advanced stages of developing a cryogenic engine for its GSLV, which would be test flown sometime next year. History is proof of the fact that India has always risen as a phoenix from the failure of launch vehicles. Development of all the launch vehicles have preceded by a failure in the respective category. It seems that the history seeks to repeat itself in the case of GSLV too. Though according to me as stated in earlier posts, failure for recent GSLV launch may not be same as stated by the authorities, its better to wait and watch the developments.

ISRAEL's Acceptance of Nuclear Status

2006-12-12T22:46:00.000+05:30

Ehud Olmert of Israel had inadvertently accepted the fact that Israel does possess nuclear weapons. This had validated the fact known by everybody and ended the regime of ambiguity maintained by Israel so as not to fuel the Nuclear Proliferation by Arab states. In 1968, ship containing 200 tons of nuclear waste, called Yellow cake was hijacked. The disappearance of Uranium was not accepted till 1977. It was alleged that Israel was behind the hijacking and had stolen that shipment to enrich the same and produce nuclear weapons(though it has never been proved). It is estimated that Israel has produced/capability to produce 200-300 nuclear weapons.

An innocent slip of tongue by Ehud Olmert will have tremendous repurcussion with Arab states pursuing Nuclear capability getting a moral boost for their plans. This is going to further destabilise already shaky middle east. The ongoing conference in Iran regarding supposed Jew holocaust during Hitler's regime will still spread more hatred against Israel. The situation can still worsen due to the condition in lebanon where pro hizbollah are demanding ousting of head of state. If the hizbollah supporters have their toehold in lebanon, the situation in middle east become more explosive and may also lead to condition where war may become inevitable.

"These are the birth pangs of new middle east" These are historic words uttered by none other than ill (or may be not) famed Condolezza Rice may become true in near future. Only the words will be chewed by the western states themselves.

Though war now is not possible but it may soon become inevitable......

Russian Lunar dreams

2006-12-08T18:40:00.000+05:30

RUSSIA wants to join Lunar Race started by USA. The article here almost says that Russia is unable to fund its space dreams although it possesses requisite technology to attain its goals.

In a gradual shift of tactics it has now associated itself with several others to complete its ambitions. It has tied up European Space Agency wherein it will supply the technology for launches in form of rockets and boosters while the European Space Agency will give financial aid and help Russia with upgrading Launch facilities. It also wants to enter into similar kind of agreement with USA. Russia's Energia has the requisite technology and complete rpadmap as how to reach for the stars. Earlier in this same column, an article had expounded how Russia is close to attaining Nuclear Propulsion Rocket with speeds almost to 1/10th of the speed of light (albeit these are theoretical findings, actual tests may show a great variance in performance)

The current article also reveals a fact that China's space plans are based on the technology provided by the Russia and it was not an indigenious program as claimed by them at the time of the manned space launch in 2003.

The bottomline is that we too need to acquire tecnology at great speed irrespective of mode of acquiring the same. The end result has become more important than the means used to attain the same. Better India wakes up to these facts or remains always a laggards in the race.....

Mangalorean.Com- Serving Mangaloreans Around The World!

2006-11-30T10:01:00.000+05:30

Refer the following news item detailing the India's achievements in space exploration and satellite industry......

India's achievements in space industry

ISRO is truly a world class organisation.

FUSED........

2006-11-22T13:30:00.000+05:30

On November 21, 2006 Six nations, European Nation, United States, India, China, Japan & South korea signed a historic agreement & committed their support & resources for building a Nuclear Fusion Reactor called ITER (originally termed as International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor). After many years of deliberations and discussions, the Idea has finally taken off.

Though the results of experiment can be verified only after a long duration say 10-15 years, it appears to be one of the most ambitious projects of the scientists around the world. The physicists have long dreamt of inexhaustible source of power and had betted on the fusion tech for the same. Though Britain has been conducting experiments in this field since 1950 and US laboratories also experimenting in this field, the results have not been so encouraging.

The current format of the US $ 12.8 billion ITER is designed in such a way that all the member nations will contribute in kind towards the project. France/EU would be commiting 50% of the resources while the other nations will be contributing about 10% of the total Cost. The Fusion Reactor will be located at South of France at Cadarache.

India is also part of this consortium. India also needs to be part of various International projects so that the benefits of the technological development in these fields and by these projects accrue to India also. India should also have been part of the International Space station Project, building of Large Hadron colliders etc. India should keep an eye on the technological achievements and the benefits accruing from these researches. India, on its own cannot invest into such huge projects, so it should participate in these projects, as this will help to develop our own indigenous technologies also. India is also member of the Galileo positioning System Posi Project by the European Union and Russian GLONASS which will help in the development and access of GPS tech.

Such ventures though of extreme risk, always aid to development of new tech and progress of the basic sciences and should always be pursued.

INDO US Nuke Deal Cleared by Senate

2006-11-17T15:12:00.000+05:30

US Senate has approved the INDO US Nuke deal by a huge margin with 85 members voting for and 12 against it. This is a huge victory for India as it will virtually mean that India has become part of the nuclear club. It is unofficially official nuclear status.

All the countries in the NSG (Nuclear supliers Group) will now fall in line and have similar deals done with India. This has assured India with stable supply of Nuclear Tech & raw materials. This deal also highlights the fact that US is willing to bet on India in its support for US war against terrorism.

India should not lose the sight of the fact that just passing of this vote in senate is not enough but it also needs approval from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and NSG (which comprises of 45 nations). It is a long way to go for secured supply of tech & raw material but a dent has been made into that refusals.

Earlier this year Australia had raised concerns over India sourcing their Uranium from them & they had expressed their reluctance to supply that to India. France, Soviet Replublic are ready to co-operate with India in this sector but Other countries like China and UK are still apprehensive of Indian intentions.

This deal will also pave the way for Indian bid for premanent seat in the UN security council. UK has already expressed its support for Indian candidature. Now other countries will also accept that view. The only country about whom one must be sceptical will be China.

Okaying deal with India, US has already made it clear that it sees India as a possible front against China. India needs to tread carefully on that path and watch that it is not sandwiched in the politics between US & China.

Space Industryworth $180 Billion

2006-11-16T13:07:00.000+05:30

Report Reveals Space Industry At $180 Billion, Outperforming NASDAQ

As per my last post, Space Industry is going to be one of most promising & fastest growing sector. The news on the above specified link confirms the same. India has to make sure that we do not remain behind atleast in this race.....

Indian Mission to Moon

2006-11-15T16:58:00.000+05:30

This week 80 scientists from the whole country gathered to discuss whether India should take up manned mission to moon?

The verdict was very predictable. They voted for a manned mission to moon by 2020. It was agreed that India does have requisite technological capability tp undertake such mission. And we should not overlook other countries ambitious aspirations in these matters. The countries and their activities in focus were Chinese moon plans, Malaysian plan to send their astronaut in space & even pakistan's plans to send their astronaut in space.

We need not look at other countries and decide what we should be doing, rather we should have our own reasons to send a manned mission to moon. The Times of india recently in its editorial have taken critical view of the mission and have raised concerns over the proposed budget of 10 to 15 thousand crores. They feel that this money could be used for other fruitful purposes. The exploration of moon and other heavenly bodies can be done through unmanned or robotic missions. They feel that there is no need to send manned mission and the requisite purpose could be served through unmanned missioons.

We should never overlook the fact that all the major breakthoughs in technology have been the result of the research & development in defence industry and then it has spilled over to the civilian sectors. Then there was report last week detailing that if all the people maintain the lifestyle of the developed nations then even resources of three such worlds would not be enough. In such conditions and compelling reasons, we really do need to upgrade ourselves technologically to confront such situations. We should be ready to satisfy the demands of all the individuals.

India does require a manned mission to moon. Though we assert that we have requisite technology to achieve that but the fact remains that this mission will have lot of other benefits also. Already many of the companies in the developed nations are talking about the space tourism. We need to look at that sector also. The development of our PSLV (polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) also helped the development of our long range missiles. America in its outlook on space technology has offically said that they will restrict the access of space to thse countries which pose security threat to them.

Gievn the above reasons and the conditions of the world, we do need such technologically ambitious missions to equip ourselves. We need to look 15, 20 years in the furture to make decisions and we shoudl not be shortsighted whilst taking such decision. Such mission will give us edge over others and benefits of these will accrue to other also.

already there is huge market for components used in space and related technologies. We also need to tap those markets. This is going to be potentially the gold mine and new fastest growing industry.

Hope we are not left behind in atleast this race......

INDIA.....The trailing Elephant overruns Dragon in Arms Spend

2006-11-10T07:31:00.000+05:30

The Latest US Congress Research Service's report on 'conventional arms transfers to developing nations' contend that India was the largest arms buyer in the world at $5.4 billion with Saudi Arabia distant second at $ 3.4 billion & China onthird position with $ 2.8 billion purchases.

We all would awestruck that India is indulging itself into an arms race and may be leaving other countries like china behind. But do these statistics really mean that? or some other inferences can be drawn out of that/

While comparing Indian spend with other countries we should also keep in mind the fact that china spends around 4.5% of their GDP on defence while India spends around 2.5% of our GDP. And the fact that Chinese GDP is more than twice of India. so In reality India spends far less on military & defence compared to china.

The other inference that needs to be drawn from the above fact that larger spend on buying arms means we are relying more on foreign companies/countries for our defence needs while countries like China have increased their indigenous content in their defence procurements. The fact should be slap in our face for the fact that we have huge humber of projects for indigenousing our defence procuurement, but none of the projects show good results.

The only exception being the partial success of missiles like Prithvi & Agni I & II. Though LCA is touted as one of our best projects, the fact remains that the engine used in the bird is of GE make. The Main battle Tank project of Arjun was an utter failure after which Indian military went for Ukranian/Russian made T80 & T90 Tanks. even when MCA project is discussed & success of LCA being swallowed, the IAF is planning for more Sukhois and Mirage 2000 fighter planes. The other missiles like Nag, Trishul have failed in fulfilling the expectations of Indian military. Military is also in talks for purchasing of UAV (Unmanned Arial Vehicles) from Israel when we have projects for Akash going on.

The only other sector where we are doing some progress is the Indian Navy where new frigates & Warships are being built by Indian docks/shipyards. The Delhi class Warships & stealth frigates have added some edge to the Indian Navy. But even then the other projects like Sagarika(Nuclear Submarine) seems to have been failed. We the population of more than one billion have only one aircraft Carrier to defend our more than half of our borders which is surrounded by sea.

We should not rejoice that we are spending more on defence but realise that this means we are being less self reliant in our defences. The world now is more vulnerable to wars than it was ever after the WW II. The fact that we are constantly in one or more crisis has made us immune to the seriousness of the current state of instability.

India should take the report with pinch of salt and make more efforts towards indigenousing defence. It should make Research & development laboratories more responsilbe for their inabliity to develop our own defence mechanisms.

Hope this is being heard by our Rulers......

Atlast INDIA Cryogenic.......

2006-11-06T00:22:00.000+05:30

India for the first time hot tested indigenous cryognic engine. The test lasted for about 50 seconds. cumulatively India has tested that engine for around 6000 seconds. In an hot test all stage elements such as engine, insulated propellant tanks, booster pumps, fill and drain systems, pressurization systems, gas bottles, igniters, cold gas orientation and stabilization system, etc are performing exactly in unison.

Well is this a start of new era in the India's launch capabilities? The crucial point of this engine would be when it is deployed for launching of GSLV D3 rocket successfully thus catapulting India into the select nations club having the technical knowhow to launchan Geostationary satellite. India could further use this technology to even put man into space.

There will also be huge cost savings on the launching of Indian satellites which are presently utilising the services of Arianespace for its INSAT series geostationary satellirtes.

India can also market its launching facilities and also earn valuable revenue from it. which will further help it strengthen its space technology.

The world as a whole is moving towards greater space access and India should care that it is not left behind in this great race.

It is also bit surprising to note that India was earlier not upto the mark in its research in Cryogenic Engines, but suddenly after this test has its morale boosted like no before.

My Own assessment :

I think the indian last GSLV launch failure and this successful test are somewhat linked. I think that the launchwas purposely failed so as to retrieve the russian made cryogenic engine in that rocket and the tech of that was used to bolster the research of our own cryogenic engine. I may be wrong or may be right too.

anyways the boot point is that India has its own Cryo tech now. That is what is important.......

North Korea's Nuclear Test OR USA's Endurance Test

2006-10-11T11:27:00.000+05:30

North Korea in defiance from calls for restraint from the world did carry out Nuclear Test. The weapon tested probably was plutonium based and having a sub kiloton yield. The US of A has downplayed the tests by raising doubts over the possibility of dud rather than a sub kiloton test. A sub kiloton nuclear weapon is used for tactical purposes and this technology is not mastered by all even countries in the nuclear club. It really requires very sophisticated tech to achieve that. If North korea has really tested such a weapon then the neighbouring countries should be more worried as deploying that kind of warhead is easier as compared to the larger convesntional ones.

North Korea has taken full advantage of the America's inability to put order in the middle east. America now seems to be too busy with its war against terrorism in the states like Iraq & Afghanistan. Tough words by Iran has put them in a square and now they find that North Korea has not only threatened but actually carried out the test.

The greater fall out of this would be other states like south korea, Japan going nuclear. Iran would get emboldened and would conduct a nuclear test. Even if that test is unsuccessful, it would also embolden states like saudi Arabia & Egypt to conduct similar militarisation of nuclear weapons. The situation really seem to be very fragile now.

Eurpoean Union has raised the issue of morality when India and Pakistan commented upon the testing of North Korea. European Union should first call up Tony Blair and ask him why is his country in the process of replacing its ageing Tirdent nuclear stockpile. countries like USA & USSR are in the process of replacing their old stockpiles with newer and more adavnced nuclear weapons which do not need physical testing but can be improved upon by working on simulated tests. None of the Nuclear Weapon club have the right to question the right of an country's to conduct an nuclear test. If the nuclear club countries were really serious about eliminating nuclear weapons fromt the earth, they should be the first who should place a example before other countries by destroying their stock piles.
No but each country wants to retain some hold over these weapons as these give them a sense of acknowledgement of power over the others. If a developed nation can harbour such aspirations then what is wrong with other nations also harbouring such thought processes. Does a nuclear weapon become less lethal and impotent by placing in the hands of america rather than in the hands of North korea or India?

Nuclear weapon holding countries double standards have made this world more insecure rather than by the actions of the so called rogue countries. none of these rogue countries have killed as many people as the developed nations have in the name of liberation, democracy & war against terrorism.

These are the states which are more than states & terrorist but truly a terrorst states who would do anything to retain their leverage over the others.

Nuclear INDIA........

2006-10-01T19:46:00.000+05:30

India's hope to ratify the Nuclear Deal with US crashed when the friday's Senate session was disbanded without taking up the Nuclear deal for vote. We need to really think about the India obsession with ratifying the deal with the US. India needs to try to first have proper Nuclear command and control in place before going in for such deals. Or atleast parallely pursue to achieve those goals. Racing to complete such treatise with Nuclear group countries before having proper command and control in place could be politically disastrous for India.

Already in India there is always fight between the three armed forces as to who would handle the Nuclear division. Though handling of the Prithvi & Medium ranged Agni Missiles have been handed over to the Army. Apart from that there is fight for the post of Joint command. then there is a proposal to have a Supreme commander of all three forces which is not even been finalised due to the differences in the opinion of the three branches of armed forces.

This infighting among the forces loses sight of the higher goals that need to be achieved like taking our country to geopolitically more commanding level in th world. We need to plan not for the year or two or five years ahead bu the planning must be at the level of 15-20 yrs ahead. then there must be structures and processes made to trying to achieve that goals.

Only then will we truly progress.

Valley in Terrorism OR Terrorism in Valley.....

2006-09-30T15:34:00.000+05:30

Mohammad Afzal Guru was convicted by the Supreme Court in the attack on the Parliament on December 13. He was the mastermind behind the attacks that had happened. He was sentenced to Death by the Apex Court. After that huge protests have been held in the valley. People have strongly objected to the decision of the Apex Court. What does this signify? Has the common man in the valley taken stand that whatwas done byhim was correct? How will the International community react to the kashmir problem after seeing this outburst of the public there? This incidence has brought forth the most important question as what is the exact reason for terrorrism being thriving in the valley.

Are we only responsible for it? If it is not so then what is the reason for such an outburst when the fact is that no political party has taken any stand on it. that really means that outburst wich we are seeing is genuinely of the public there. It is what is reflecting the opinion of the general public there.....

We really need to stop for a moment and analyse our actions and reactions to the happening in the valley and also change our policies in that perspective....

IMF & Its Voting Rights...

2006-09-27T11:21:00.000+05:30

In their latest summit in Asia, IMF has on adhoc basis decided to increase the voting power of 4 developing countries which does not include India. Does that makes sense. IMF has told this to be the biggest change in IMF in past 60 years. What is the basis of such change has not been explained by IMF. The randomness of the change in voting rights will definitely rub the wounds of the countries who have been fighting against the partial treatment towards developed nations by IMF & the WTO.

These news items do not make any headlines in our country which, in fact, needs to be given utmost importance considering the scale of Globalisation of the country. In this context we need to be politically active on the international level also. The sad part is we, INDIANS are not active in local activities and expecting them to be one on the global scale is too much. But the fact remains unless & until we do not actively participate in political activities we are not going to derive any benefit from it.

Let's HOPE that this situation changes over a period of time. What is required can't be expected by revolution but EVOLUTION is expected.....

Wonderful time in Gurgaon......

2006-09-25T22:29:00.000+05:30

Hello Everybody,

Could not post more on the Thai Coup as have got some work outsie my town. I am in Gurgaon right now and having a great time. Seems Everybody is very happy with the Economy which seems bit odd. My personal feeling is Something is gonna go wrong. lets wait & watch

Bloodless Coup, Bloody Intentions....

2006-09-20T11:26:00.000+05:30

ARMY Takes over Thiland...... Bloodless coup, first in 15 Yrs, wrests power from PM Shinawatra..

Headlines screaming this Morning, Is this really bloodless or indications of coming bloody things ahead. are these the indications of another south east asian crisis!!???...

will comment more afterwards.. needs more analysis..

The Start

2006-09-18T16:28:00.000+05:30

Hi Friend
This is me......

Now a small attempt.... Now you would ask of what? who knows what this small attempt lead to? Well! that's a start and let's look forward that this will lead to really something creative and fruitful. you can call that start of a passion. We (i.e. me & my friends) always tried something new but that doesn't mean that always lead to something big but it definitely lead to something new and created a hell lot of ideas and you all know Ideas don't die they last, actually they everlast...Now that's something worth striving for......

Lets Start.............