Indo US Deal Loses its Sheen

The day the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) granted unique waiver to India to trade in Nuclear related technology & fuel irrespective of its signing of NPT & CTBT, India has made its way to nuclear group through backdoor. India can be termed as only country which is recognised as nuclear weapon state, allowed to trade in nuclear material without signing NPT & CTBT. So technically India while can have all privileges of nuclear weapon state but is not bound by any law as other states are.

There is one more implication of the NSG waiver granted to India. India now does not NEED Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. The main objective of India entering into deal with India was

• Able to trade in nuclear material so that we can import uranium for our power plants and the same time divert own uranium for weapons program. ( I had discussed this earlier also)
• Able to import dual use technology for our own purpose military & civilian prupose.
• Our Military nuclear programme should be legitmised.
• Our chances of getting Permanent membership of security council is increased.

To get that we required two things to happen

1. Recognition of separate programme for civilian & military nuclear programme (approval from IAEA was required for it)
2. Trading in nuclear related material (NSG waiver did that for us)

Now once that is done, the question is does India need Indo-US deal. The answer to that is not so simple but we can live without it also. It was possible to live without all these steps also but after these steps the need of the deal is diminished though not demolished.

We shoulod realise that post NSG waiver, we can trade in nuclear related material with any country so now we are not dependent on US for nuclear supplies. The objective of US in this deal was multipronged:

1. It convinced its own public that they are doing this for non-proliferation.
2. A counter balance to China in Asia.
3. Creating business & jobs in their non-existent nuclear supplies companies in US.

Russia & France are ready to enter into such deal with India at any moment. We can even use our demand potential and NSG waiver as bargaining chip while entering into deals with lesser know countries for perpetual supply of nuke material. these would include counties like poland, angola.

But there lies some risks in not operationalising 123 deal viz.

1. US can exert pressure on smaller countries to not trade with India.
2. India's entry into exclusive security council will be in-ordinately delayed.
3. We can expect US to exert influence on all activities with India.
4. If it can extract waiver from NSG, then it can possibly get it reversed also.

In this situation what is the path that India should undertake.

If India enters into deal with US, the Hyde Act can create problems for us in the later years to come. As we tie up for fuel supplies with US, they can then easily exert influence us on any policy matter as our energy would be dependent on their supplies.

India is in such a situation where it does not need 123 deal but at the same time cannot deny to enter into deal.

The course of action should be as follows:

1. As elections are round the corner, delay the ratification of 123 deal. Let that ratification get spilled over to next coming government.
2. Advance talks with other countries for similar deals (maxim - "Do not put all your eggs in one basket")
3. After ratification, delay making policies for private participation in nuclear sector.
4. Allow immediately imports of dual use technology. (irrespective of any situation , the technology once acquired cannot be taken back, we can always copy it and make claims of being indigenous)
5. Allow dual use tech in renewable energy resources & other high tech areas. ( we should use that to develop technology to do nuclear testing simulations, so that we do not need to test other weapon ever again).

These are some of the steps that India can take.

Now it is upto our leadership to decide the path to undertake.

Agni III IRBM or ICBM

Length : 17 metres

Diameter : 2 metres

Range: 3,000+ km

Payload: 1,500 kg

War head Type: Nuclear also

Velocity : 4km/sec



What is Agni III?

Some tout it as IRBM. some argue over that it is an ICBM in the veil of IRBM. The official stand is that Agni III tested by India on May 07, 2008 was an 3000+ km range missile with a capacity of around 1500 kg war head.

The question is what is IRBM & what is ICBM? then may be we can answer what Agni III represents. but alas there is no definite definition of even that. If you try and scourge few forums you would realise that the discussion everywhere is Agni III is an ICBM in the veil of IRBM. As the payload is of 1,500 kg, if it is reduced to 1000kg then the range of the missile would increase by almost 50% i.e. it could reach target of more than 4,500 km.

This stand could be vindicated by the Russian general's statement that the development of Agni III closely follows that of Russian SS-20 missiles & the range of Agni III can breach 5,000km.

Anyways the policy followed by Indians is quite impressive by packaging the ICBM range missile as IRBM and avoiding a controversy regarding it. This kind of diplomacy shows the coming of maturity of the Indian International Political stance.

The important factor should be there should not more delay in testing the other advanced and improved versions of this missile.

K-15 Code name for Sagrika--Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile

India on Tuesday, February 26, 2008 successfully testfired tactical submarine-to-surface Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile(SLBM) 'Sagarika' codenamed K-15. The test was conducted from a 50 metre submerged pontoon off the coast of Vishakhapatnam. The missile will be mounted on much touted India's nuclear submarine Advanced Technology Vehicle (ATV), which is in developmental stage.

India had earlier also conducted a test of this missile but was declared as partial success because of course deviation.

Missile Stats:

Length : 8.5 Metres

Diameter : 1 metre

Weight : 7 tonnes

Payload : 500 kg

Nuclear Ready : Yes

Range: 700 Km

Stages : Two

Developed by: Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) Misile Complex, Hyderabad, Defence Research & Development Laboratory (DRDL), Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL), Research Centre Imarat(RCI)

DRDL : Misssile design & development

ASL : Motors & Propulsion Systems

RCI: Avionics, including control & guiding systems & inertial navigation systems

The test has put into select club of countries with a strategic deterrent forceat sea. The other countries who have this capability are United States (Trident-11,300 km ), Russia (Bulava-10,000km), France (M4 - 5,000km) & China (JL-1, NA, JL-2- 8,000km under development).

The India has also now completed one more leg of Nuclear Triad for minimum deterrence. India already has AgniI, Agni II, Prithvi as Surface to Surface Ballistic Missiles. Sagarika will defeintely add punch to deterrence by providing sea based launch capacity. India is also working on its surface to air missile Akash & Trishul, Air-to-Air missiles Astra, anti tank missile Nag.

Defence Expo 2008.. Spawing MilBus in India...

The ongoing Fifth International Land & Naval Exhibition system, DEFEXPO 2008 at Pragati Maidan, New Delhi has generated lot of heat & flutter among the aspirant buyers & dealers of arms & armaments.

475 defence manufacturers, 30 countries, 32,000 square meters area, staggering launch of 91 new products ranging from radars, to communications systems, torpedoes, anti-mine vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles is bound to turn lot of heads towards India. RIA Novosti reports that with India arms spending, around $30 billion on arms spend in 2007, has acquired global dimensions. Indian private sector is vying for atleast 30% of that pie which would amount to $10 billion which is India expects, the public sector won't be able to absorb. India's spend on arms will be around 2.5% of the GDP which is huge amount considering India being 4th largest economy in the world.

A great number of collaborations & negotiations between Indian companies & foreign defence equipment manufacturers have also been anounced. some of those notably are

1. TATA Advanced Systems (India) sign MOU with Israeli Aerospace Industries to manufacture and develop missiles, pilotless aircrafts, electronic warfare systems, radars and other security systems and defence equipments.
2. TATA has also tied up with European Defence and Aerospace Consortium for developing advanced tactical communications system project for Indian Army.
3. TATA also made a contract with US based Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation for manufacturing cabins for Sikorsky’s S-92 helicopters.
4. TATA also made a joint venture of the company with American aircraft major, Boeing, which is touted as the largest deal of the EXPO.
5. Mahindra Defence Systems (MDS), a part of the Mahindra & Mahindra Group, is in advanced negotiations for a strategic alliance with Whitehead Alenia Sistemi Subacquei (WASS). The proposed underwater defence JV with WASS will jointly address the Indian requirement for underwater defence bringing to the country's armed forces affordable world-class underwater defence systems.
6. European naval defence systems major DCNS Group announced that it would set up its Indian subsidiary to facilitate ongoing and future projects.
7. DCNS has recently signed agreements with Kirloskar Oil Engines for integrated platform management systems and with Walchandnagar Industries Ltd. propulsion system parts for the next generation ASW (anti-submarine warfare) corvettes being built for the Indian Navy.

There is still a day remaining & lot of exuberance is still being showcased. This binneial event is touted to be largest of its kind. China has remained away from the EXPO while Pakistan was invited to it.

This EXPO has created lot of exuberance in the Indian Private sector to grab a slice of the Indian Defence market. This will naturally aid to the MilBus(Military Business nexus) in India. Indian defence minister also announced that midllemen will be completely eliminated & has also trying to reduce lot of procedural hiccups while sourcing defence deals.

Indian Goverment does not place orders with the private sector company which does not have less than 26% equity owned by foreign collaborators. It is expected that this norm may be relaxed, which will definitely provide a huge boost to the industry here...

Pakistan to mass produce JF-17 Single Seat Multirole Chinese Fighter Aircraft

Pakistan began on Tuesday Jan 22, 2008, the mass assembly of a JF-17 fighter at an aircraft-manufacturing plant in the northwest of the country, national television reported.

The JF-17 Thunder, also known as the FC-1 "Chao Qi" Fierce Dragon in China, is a single-seat multirole fighter aircraft developed by China. It is based on the design of Russian MIG 33, which was rejected by Russian Airforce. Earlier the costs odf these planes was said to be $10 million but the curretn reports suggests that the costs have escalated to $20 million per piece with production of 300 planes. Earlier the serial production was to be started in Jan 2006 but got delayed due to modifications/upgradations sought by pakistan air force.

China had made a deal with Musharraf in 1998 to manufacture 150 such aircrafts in Pakistan. About 50% of the on-board equipment and avionics for the fighter will be manufactured in Pakistan at the Kamra plant, while the rest of the assembly parts are to come from China.Pakistani Air Force Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mahmood Ahmed, said last year that 15 aircraft would be manufactured in 2008, and a further 20 next year, with an ultimate goal of achieving the capability to manufacture 25 to 30 aircraft per year.Pakistan has announced that it could procure 150-300 aircraft to meet the tactical and strategic needs of its Air Force and to replace the Chengdu F-7P fighters in current service.Beijing delivered two $20-mln JF-17 fighters equipped with Russian-made RD-93 engines to Pakistan in March 2007, prompting Indian protests. India claimed the deal was a violation of the end-user agreement between Russia and China.

The JF-17 is a light weight, all weather, multi-role aircraft having a capability to fly at a speed of Mach 1.6 and a high thrust to weight ratio. The aircraft has the ability to engage targets at all speeds and altitudes within the conventional flying envelope. In the surface attack and interdiction role, the aircraft can strike at long distances. The combat jet has been installed with an advanced flight control system, which is a mix of conventional and fly-by-wire controls, making it highly agile and manoeuvrable.
The aircraft would be capable of carrying short-range, beyond visual range, anti-ship as well as anti-radiation missiles. Additionally, the carriage of high and low drag bombs, laser guided bombs, run away penetration bombs and cluster bombs would be catered for.

TECSAR ..... Unvisible Eye in Sky

Amidst much secrecy, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) agency has successfully launched the Israeli satellite TECSAR.The 350 kg satellite also referred to sometimes as Polaris is being launched from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh using the Indian workhorse rocket the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV).

Considering the extreme geopolitical sensitivity of the launch, ISRO has made no formal announcement for this mission. This satellite is considered to be spy satellite of Israel.

TECSAR can take high resolution pictures even in clouded and foggy weather. It is most advanced satellite ever made by Israel. There are also rumours of India having entered into data sharing arrangement for the satellite launched from Indian shores.

Surface to Air Missile - Akash

The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) on Wednesday successfully test-fired the Akash surface-to-air missile from the Chandipur-on-Sea launch station. Today’s launch is one amongst the series of tests that are being carried out by the premiere defence research organisation. Akash was last tested on the 14th of this month from the same place.

While terming the test a success, senior defence officials said that the top-of-the-line missile had followed expected trajectory and hit a flying target effectively.

However, this series of tests is not the first for Akash as it had been tested earlier too, last being in January, 2007.

The 700-kilogramme Akash can track 100 targets simultaneously with onboard radar while moving at a speed of 600 metres per second. It has been designed to deliver a 55-kilogramme warhead across 27 kilometres in 50 seconds.

Akash testing gains significance as it has come days after the government announced plans to enhance India’s nuclear capability by developing missiles capable of hitting targets 6,000 kilometres away.

Moreover, Pakistan had also earlier in the month tested their nuke capable missile Ghauri that has been specifically designed to neutralise India’s Prithvi class of missiles.

India's Indigenous Missile Defence....

Dear Readers,

Starting from today, I am introducing a new series of posts related to India's Defence. All these posts will have the tag of defence updates..... I will also continue giving analysis & recommendations on India's posture in defence & International Politics. Those articles require quite a deal of time to be dwelt upon. nevertheless, efforts will be made to post articles more frequently.....

India's Indigenous Missile Defence....

On December 6th, 2007, India tested indigenously developed supersonic interceptor missile. This very first test itself was a success. This will give boost to India's defence capabilities keeping in mind the latest political developments in neighbouring Pakistan and recent missile tests by it...