Indo US Deal Loses its Sheen

The day the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) granted unique waiver to India to trade in Nuclear related technology & fuel irrespective of its signing of NPT & CTBT, India has made its way to nuclear group through backdoor. India can be termed as only country which is recognised as nuclear weapon state, allowed to trade in nuclear material without signing NPT & CTBT. So technically India while can have all privileges of nuclear weapon state but is not bound by any law as other states are.

There is one more implication of the NSG waiver granted to India. India now does not NEED Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. The main objective of India entering into deal with India was

• Able to trade in nuclear material so that we can import uranium for our power plants and the same time divert own uranium for weapons program. ( I had discussed this earlier also)
• Able to import dual use technology for our own purpose military & civilian prupose.
• Our Military nuclear programme should be legitmised.
• Our chances of getting Permanent membership of security council is increased.

To get that we required two things to happen

1. Recognition of separate programme for civilian & military nuclear programme (approval from IAEA was required for it)
2. Trading in nuclear related material (NSG waiver did that for us)

Now once that is done, the question is does India need Indo-US deal. The answer to that is not so simple but we can live without it also. It was possible to live without all these steps also but after these steps the need of the deal is diminished though not demolished.

We shoulod realise that post NSG waiver, we can trade in nuclear related material with any country so now we are not dependent on US for nuclear supplies. The objective of US in this deal was multipronged:

1. It convinced its own public that they are doing this for non-proliferation.
2. A counter balance to China in Asia.
3. Creating business & jobs in their non-existent nuclear supplies companies in US.

Russia & France are ready to enter into such deal with India at any moment. We can even use our demand potential and NSG waiver as bargaining chip while entering into deals with lesser know countries for perpetual supply of nuke material. these would include counties like poland, angola.

But there lies some risks in not operationalising 123 deal viz.

1. US can exert pressure on smaller countries to not trade with India.
2. India's entry into exclusive security council will be in-ordinately delayed.
3. We can expect US to exert influence on all activities with India.
4. If it can extract waiver from NSG, then it can possibly get it reversed also.

In this situation what is the path that India should undertake.

If India enters into deal with US, the Hyde Act can create problems for us in the later years to come. As we tie up for fuel supplies with US, they can then easily exert influence us on any policy matter as our energy would be dependent on their supplies.

India is in such a situation where it does not need 123 deal but at the same time cannot deny to enter into deal.

The course of action should be as follows:

1. As elections are round the corner, delay the ratification of 123 deal. Let that ratification get spilled over to next coming government.
2. Advance talks with other countries for similar deals (maxim - "Do not put all your eggs in one basket")
3. After ratification, delay making policies for private participation in nuclear sector.
4. Allow immediately imports of dual use technology. (irrespective of any situation , the technology once acquired cannot be taken back, we can always copy it and make claims of being indigenous)
5. Allow dual use tech in renewable energy resources & other high tech areas. ( we should use that to develop technology to do nuclear testing simulations, so that we do not need to test other weapon ever again).

These are some of the steps that India can take.

Now it is upto our leadership to decide the path to undertake.

Nuke Deal, 123 agreement, Does it really means more power or something else

Everybody is today talking about nuke deal with US. Almost all the people barring the leftist are arguing that 123 deal will help India jack up Power production, will help sagging Indian nuclear industry, allow state of technology to be imported. The moot question is this the objective of nuke deal? Do India really have huge shortage of uranium and its tech to process it? Is re-processing so important that without, we would not be able to prosper? Will backing of deal now mean loss of credibility for India on international fora?

Lets examine these issues one by one..

1) Does India really have shortage of nuclear fuel i.e. Uranium?

Ans: The question is bit wrong. first of all nuclear fuel does not mean only uranium. plutonium, thorium are also used as fuel in nuclear reactors. India has also been designing fast breeder reactors based on thorium as fuel requiring very less uranium as startup fuel. India has 0.8% of world uranium reserves i.e 78,000 tonnes of that metal. aren't these enough? yes, this much fuel is enough to generate electricity for India needs. A mix of AHWRS(Advanced Heaby Water Reactors) and FBRs(Fast Breeder Reactors) can fuel India's needs to produce 3,50,000 Mw of electricity in next half century. This prediction is based on current reserves. If we take into account the newly developed FTBR (Fast Thorium Breeder Reactor) , we can then work wonders. Although the new technology is still years away from actual implementation, it can reasonably assured that this tech can work. The way this reactor breeds Uranium and Plutonium, we can theoretically double capacity every 15-20 years. This all is based on current reserves of uranium think what will happen, if we are able to find more deposits of uranium?

2) Does India have shortage of uranium and its tech to reprocess?

Ans: The above questions answer comfortably answers even to the current question that we do have enough uranium and the related tech to reprocess it. India has built FBTR (Fast Breeder Test Reactor) "Kamini" to prove the same. we are also in the process to intall bigger breeder reactors. The development of FTBR, which not only breeds plutonium (which is also used as input) but also breeds uranium. It is also called twin core reactor for its unique design. These all inputs prove that yes, we have technology to process and reprocess the nuclear fuel.

3) Is re-processing so important that without, we would not be able to prosper?

Ans: The answer to this question is "YES", we need reprocessing of fuel to breed it and enhance our overall potential to generate power or electricity, whatever we use it for. All the above calculation of 3,50,000 Mwe of power is based on the fact that we are able to reprocess the spent fuel on AHWRs and breed them using FBRs. This was in fact India three step program to achieve independency in nuclear power. So reprocessing is absolutely essential for India.

4) Will backing of deal now mean loss of credibility for India on international fora?

Ans: No. backing out of this deal India would not lose credibility. India is already such a huge success story that none of the constituemts of world economy ignore India. Irrespective of what is happening to Nuke deal, we will keep contiuning our business with China and other nations. Nuclear deal has not yet been signed or ratified by either party. It needs to be endorsed by IAEA (International Atomic energy Agency) and NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) to be enforced. We are still at step two of long process. Actually killing deal at this point of time will not make big difference compared to India backing out after getting all the approvals.

5) The big question now is then what is the purpose of this Nuke Deal?

Ans: World today is not correct representation of its constituents. The NPT regime(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) and CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) does not treats responsible countries with difference rather favours only specific countries and punishes responsible countries like India. No country can undo the process of NPT or CTBT but almost all the major powers realise that excluding an big country like India from the nuclear club cannot be in their interests. So to gain backdoor entry into nuclear club, this nuke deal is being done.

Being said this, I would further say this is not the only reason. This reason sounds acceptable from view of other countries. In case of India, it gives an opportunity to legitimise the nuclear weaponisation of the country. It provides an opportunity to override the international rules for non-nuclear country as per NPT.

India has its own nuclear weapons programme. Having earlier said that Uranium reserves are enough for power generation, these very same reserves also need to be utilised for weapons programme. If they are used for weapons, we will not be able to reprocess and increase it potentiality. we need separate reserves for our weapons programme too. If this deal goes through, we can use the indigenous nuclear fuel for our weapons programme and use imported fuel for our power generation.

In case of testing of nuclear weapon and sanctions by all countries(which will never happen), we can always back off from treaty and refuse to handover the used, processed and reprocessed fuel. No country can take military action for the same against us. Maximum harm that may happen is some countries will cease to have nuclear relations with us for some time. Then after that all relations will be re-established.

In this current world politics, we need to get out of the non-servient thinking and look beyond words. Our acts to strengthen our defence and economic power will be deterrent to other countries to snap ties with us. Though we honour all treaties and agreements, we should never let these things to come as hinderance to the progress of the country as whole. We need to diplomatically twist the situations to our needs and gian from them.....

Indo-US Nuclear Agreement : Indian Govt reasoning and Way out as per Arun Shourie

Arun shourie has in this article demonstrated how India can increase its stockpile of nuclear weapons.
IntelliBriefs: Indo-US Nuclear Agreement : Indian Govt reasoning and Way out as per Arun Shourie

India should not only be counting on US help and imported uranium for its energy needs. It needs to fast forward its breeder reactors to reduce dependence on imported uranium and try to achieve sufficiency atleast for its weapons programme. The more fast breeder reactors we have, faster would be growth in our potential of nuclear power.

The study by Ashley Tellis, Architect of Indo US nuclear deal details that all the nuclear reactors in India (including the ones which are being constructed) will not require more than 30,000 tonnes of uranium in their entire lifetime. These are the reactors which are being used for weaponisation programme. Apart from that all the nuclear reactors used for power generation will not use more than 15,000 tonnes of uranium in their entire life time. India has total of 78,000 tonnes of proven uranium reserves. If enough research is done, the figure could go on higher side also.

Fast breeder reactors (reactors which give more uranium as output than the quantity consumed by it) are an interesting concept which will help increase the stockpile. so if we have one breeder reactor for every conventional reactor, we can completely eliminate the search for more uranium.

My Analysis

The nuclear deal with US is not for just import or more access to uranium but to be respectfully included in the group of nuclear equipped countries and in effect, diminish the value of NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement). Nuclear deal will not only give access to more uranium worldwide (Australia is considering exports of uranium to India) but also other nuclear raw material and technilogy available with the NSG group.

Spent fuel reprocessing & Indo US 123 Agreement

A lot is already been said about Indo US Nuclear agreement also called as 123 agreement. India has been adamant about two clauses in the agreement on which both the countries not relenting.

The two clauses are 1) fuel supply guarantees and; 2) Reprocessing of spent fuel.



Today we will discuss reprocessing spent fuel and why is it necessary for India?

To understand that, we first need to understand what is spent fuel reprocessing?

(I will try to keep this in non-technical language. even I am an non-technical guy)

Spent Fuel Reprocessing: Almost all the reactors use Uranium or Plutonium as fuel for processing. After processing, the waste product of this processing is highly radioactive Uranium, which is very toxic to handle and dispose off. In pursuant to use even that processed fuel, Fast breeder reactors(or so called) are developed, which use this waste product generated by PHWRs(Pressurised Heavy water Reactors) i.e. uranium and Plutonium together as fuel. Fast Breeder Reactor produces Uranium as endproduct and the quantum of Uranium so produced is more than that used as input in the reactor. This gives the reactor its name as Breeder reactor.

As India has very less reserves of Uranium as compared to other nations, this technology of breeder reactors is very crucial to India. The Indo US nuclear agreement deals with supply of uranium to Indian reactors. Hence once India has received the fuel, it also needs to Reprocess the spent fuel so as to increase its potential of generating electricity. Breeder technology can vastly improve India potential of nuclear power generation. So the issue of Spent Fuel Reprocessing is very critical to India and canot compromise on the same.

Another aspect of reprocessing of spent fuel is that the output of breeder reactor is Uranium and not Uranium dioxide or any other compound, which makes it idal candidate for its use in making nuclear weapons also. US is concerned with reprocessed fuel being used for military purposes and probable proliferation.

My Recommendations:

India should not relent itself from its current stand for allowing reprocessing of spent fuel. But instead of just relying on US and other NSG (Nuclear Materials Supplier Group) for supply of fissile material for its power generattion and Nuclear weapons, India should also progress vociferously towards utilisation of thorium as alternate fuel.

India has been developing AHWR (Advanced Heavy Water Reactor) Technology which uses throrium as its fuel and some plutonim as its seed fuel. AHWR gives uranium as waste product which can later be used as feedstock for breeder reactors. India's progress and programme for development of thorium cycle can be viewed in document issued by Department of Atomic energy. AHWR is also said to be one of the safest reactor designs in the world as they use thorium as fuel which is less toxic as compared to Uranium 233 or 238 used by conventional reactors.

India has already designing a prototype AHWR reactor and should spend more money for its development. The AHWR more information can be found here.

India should also acout for more Uranium deposits in the country itself(Meghalay has maximum deposits of Uranium but its mining is mirred by local protests there).

India should try to assure US that the reprocessed fuel will be used only generation of power and will not be diverted for other uses.

India on the other hand should also push for similar agreements with other nations which can be bullied upon. Similar agreements with other nations will put some pressure on US to conclude this agreement at the earliest.

General Gareyev Says Russia Changing Its Military Doctrine

Academy of Military Sciences is holding a conference on 20th January and the President of the organisation, General Gareyev will be presenting a report on new Russian military doctrine. In an interview with Viktor Litovkin, the General has made some interesting observations which could have an far reaching implications on the world order and also gives insights into the thinking of an superpower, its views about the other nations, their allies and also their supposed enemies. It also provides insight into how to frame an policy document which can have considerable effect on the other interested parties. The detailed Interview can be sought at following address
General Gareyev Says Russia Changing Its Military Doctrine

some of the interesting quotes are :

"We should define potential ways of using our armed forces and other troops, as well as the types of wars and armed conflicts that we could encounter today and up to the year 2015."

my comments:

this shows the farsightedness of the concerned person/state whilst framing such policies. It seems Russia has made considerable study on the matter.

"It is necessary to avoid excessive emphasis on politics and ideology, instead concentrating on practical efforts to build up defenses."

my comments:

This comment brings out the fallacy of being ideologically correct and failing on practical fronts, the kind of diplomacy India has been promoting. We should look for practical and realist ideas while avoiding into getting any type of ideological controversy. The General by expressing these views makes clear that all the ideas, logic are for them and they are not made for ideas or logic. It makes pretty clear that the security of state is of utost importance and above all other things...

"Ecological and energy factors will be the main causes of political and military conflicts in the next 10-15 years. Some states will try to control the energy resources of others, as happened in Iraq, while others will have no choice but to resist or die"

my comments:

The former part of the above comment relates to cuurent conflicts in the world and also its airs its views as how it has interpreted the Iraq war. It clearlr says that iraq war is not interpreted as "war of liberation" as war to control resources. The later part of the comment is directed towards US saying that the same kind of tactics cannot be used against them. Russia, itself, is a major producer of hydrocarbons and recently has been trying to wrest control from western companies. It has by hook or crook tried to get hold of oil companies operating in Russia. Kremlin indirectly through this document and its actions against foreign companies tries to imply that Russia can'tbe bullied by western powers and they cannot take control of russian resources.

This comment gives insight into mind of superpower and its view towards other superpower.

"Needless to say, poverty is not the only cause of terrorism. North Korea and Cuba are poor countries, but they have not produced terrorists. Those who attacked the U.S. in 2001 were far from being poor."

my comments;

This directly criticises the US diplomacy and atittude towards Islamist extremism and their repurcussions on US.

"It is perfectly obvious that not a single serious issue in the modern world can be resolved without Russia. We don't need confrontation with the U.S., or with the West, or the East."

my comments:

this emphaises that Russia is still a superpower and also that it needs to be consulted while making any decision about world order. At this juncture, I would like to draw attention to recent veto exercised by Russia and China while passing an motion on myanmmar government by UN Secuirty council. But alongwith that, in the same breath, It also says that it does not want any confrontation with any of the western powers. This will be further discussed below.

"It is abundantly clear that there is no alternative to a multi-polar world with major centers of influence (the U.S., European Union, Russia, China, and India). "

my comments:

This sentence alongwith other things in the same para makes abundantly clear the effect of growing influence of India on the world forum...(catering self ego...)

The following para makes clear that the western policies will lead to confrontations with many nations and that Russia is more than ready to fill the gap created by US in managing the wolrd affairs(read natural resources). Russia has at the appropriate time made comments about their doctrine. It tries to create a passionate image about them in the minds of the anti-western powers while also making clear that national interests are most vital to them and they would be protected at any costs.

Further in the interview, General says that growing influence of NATO over soviet era nations like Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgystan will not be tolerated and that the influence will be termed as infringements by western powers over their turf. it also further says that, Russia may retaliate for the same. Recent actions by Russia over fuel supply should corroborate the doctrine of russia. It also implies that though the doctrine is in public realm now, but it already is in works by the kremlin and effectively pursuing it also.

"Secondly, the use of nuclear arms and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction continue to threaten Russia. The nuclear weapons of all major nuclear powers are ultimately designed to be used against Russia, whether we want to admit it or not. In this context, the task of curbing a potential aggressor by means of a strategic nuclear deterrent is becoming more important than in the past."

my comments:

According to me, these are the strongest ever comments made by any nation ever. It tries to imply that all the other nations other than Russia or Russian confederates are enemies of Russia and Russia could use nuclear weapons against any of those. This shows the strong hand of Russia.

Further replying to "possible first strike using of nuclear arms", it justifies that doctrine very convincingly. It clarifies that such weapons cannot used as tactical weapons to neutralize opponents like those in chechnya or any other enemy using proxy wars but will be used with utmost care and while it is attacked by conventional forces on all fronts. it further says that it could not such an conventional force so as to effectively guard its huge expanse. This it says needs an backing of effective nuclear deterrent.

This comment also shows why though western powers emphasize on non-proliferation but try to advance their own weapons. US is already in the process of modernizing its nuclear weaponry and he contracts for the Trident nuclear systems have been already awarded. UK also is in the same process.

Let anybody profess anything about disarmament the nuclear weapons are here to stay till it has not destroyed all of us.

Further Analysis:

What does this document reveal more? we need to analyse this from a situation where in future when all the major powers are locked into confrontation with other nations and next big war is looming over heads, who will side with whom!!??

Yes!!!! that canbe predicted.....Lets discuss that in our next post..........

Indo-US nuclear deal

George Bush today signed Indo-US nuclear pact and made it a law. In India, congress would have rejoiced but BJP,who actually put the founding stone for this deal, wants the government to reject the deal, while the Left seems to be unhappy over the over-enthusiasm(so called) shown by congress government to usher in this deal.

Meanwhile, Indian scientists have come together to voice their concerns over the deal. Their main contention has been their views have not been taken into consideration, while entering in this deal. They are also unhappy ovewr various conditions in the deal like India will have to report to US over their non-proliferation regime, which they feel as unwarranted as India should not be answerable to anyone for their own policies. Deal further states that India will not conduct any new nuclear weapons testing, which scientists is wrong as mere two tests cannot be enough to induct nuclear weapons into mainstream military use, and that too when developed nations have done scores of tests before actively inducting in defence forces.

Deal also says that India should align its non-proliferation regime/policies with that of US, which is totally unacceptable as India as being equally democractic country as US is, should have its own agenda, purpose and policy towards nuclear diplomacy in international arena.

The deal though has been made as an act in US, seems to find tough ground in India.

ISRAEL's Acceptance of Nuclear Status

Ehud Olmert of Israel had inadvertently accepted the fact that Israel does possess nuclear weapons. This had validated the fact known by everybody and ended the regime of ambiguity maintained by Israel so as not to fuel the Nuclear Proliferation by Arab states. In 1968, ship containing 200 tons of nuclear waste, called Yellow cake was hijacked. The disappearance of Uranium was not accepted till 1977. It was alleged that Israel was behind the hijacking and had stolen that shipment to enrich the same and produce nuclear weapons(though it has never been proved). It is estimated that Israel has produced/capability to produce 200-300 nuclear weapons.

An innocent slip of tongue by Ehud Olmert will have tremendous repurcussion with Arab states pursuing Nuclear capability getting a moral boost for their plans. This is going to further destabilise already shaky middle east. The ongoing conference in Iran regarding supposed Jew holocaust during Hitler's regime will still spread more hatred against Israel. The situation can still worsen due to the condition in lebanon where pro hizbollah are demanding ousting of head of state. If the hizbollah supporters have their toehold in lebanon, the situation in middle east become more explosive and may also lead to condition where war may become inevitable.

"These are the birth pangs of new middle east" These are historic words uttered by none other than ill (or may be not) famed Condolezza Rice may become true in near future. Only the words will be chewed by the western states themselves.

Though war now is not possible but it may soon become inevitable......

FUSED........

On November 21, 2006 Six nations, European Nation, United States, India, China, Japan & South korea signed a historic agreement & committed their support & resources for building a Nuclear Fusion Reactor called ITER (originally termed as International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor). After many years of deliberations and discussions, the Idea has finally taken off.

Though the results of experiment can be verified only after a long duration say 10-15 years, it appears to be one of the most ambitious projects of the scientists around the world. The physicists have long dreamt of inexhaustible source of power and had betted on the fusion tech for the same. Though Britain has been conducting experiments in this field since 1950 and US laboratories also experimenting in this field, the results have not been so encouraging.

The current format of the US $ 12.8 billion ITER is designed in such a way that all the member nations will contribute in kind towards the project. France/EU would be commiting 50% of the resources while the other nations will be contributing about 10% of the total Cost. The Fusion Reactor will be located at South of France at Cadarache.

India is also part of this consortium. India also needs to be part of various International projects so that the benefits of the technological development in these fields and by these projects accrue to India also. India should also have been part of the International Space station Project, building of Large Hadron colliders etc. India should keep an eye on the technological achievements and the benefits accruing from these researches. India, on its own cannot invest into such huge projects, so it should participate in these projects, as this will help to develop our own indigenous technologies also. India is also member of the Galileo positioning System Posi Project by the European Union and Russian GLONASS which will help in the development and access of GPS tech.

Such ventures though of extreme risk, always aid to development of new tech and progress of the basic sciences and should always be pursued.