Friday, January 19, 2007

General Gareyev Says Russia Changing Its Military Doctrine

Academy of Military Sciences is holding a conference on 20th January and the President of the organisation, General Gareyev will be presenting a report on new Russian military doctrine. In an interview with Viktor Litovkin, the General has made some interesting observations which could have an far reaching implications on the world order and also gives insights into the thinking of an superpower, its views about the other nations, their allies and also their supposed enemies. It also provides insight into how to frame an policy document which can have considerable effect on the other interested parties. The detailed Interview can be sought at following address
General Gareyev Says Russia Changing Its Military Doctrine

some of the interesting quotes are :
"We should define potential ways of using our armed forces and other troops, as well as the types of wars and armed conflicts that we could encounter today and up to the year 2015."
my comments:
this shows the farsightedness of the concerned person/state whilst framing such policies. It seems Russia has made considerable study on the matter.
"It is necessary to avoid excessive emphasis on politics and ideology, instead concentrating on practical efforts to build up defenses."
my comments:
This comment brings out the fallacy of being ideologically correct and failing on practical fronts, the kind of diplomacy India has been promoting. We should look for practical and realist ideas while avoiding into getting any type of ideological controversy. The General by expressing these views makes clear that all the ideas, logic are for them and they are not made for ideas or logic. It makes pretty clear that the security of state is of utost importance and above all other things...
"Ecological and energy factors will be the main causes of political and military conflicts in the next 10-15 years. Some states will try to control the energy resources of others, as happened in Iraq, while others will have no choice but to resist or die"
my comments:
The former part of the above comment relates to cuurent conflicts in the world and also its airs its views as how it has interpreted the Iraq war. It clearlr says that iraq war is not interpreted as "war of liberation" as war to control resources. The later part of the comment is directed towards US saying that the same kind of tactics cannot be used against them. Russia, itself, is a major producer of hydrocarbons and recently has been trying to wrest control from western companies. It has by hook or crook tried to get hold of oil companies operating in Russia. Kremlin indirectly through this document and its actions against foreign companies tries to imply that Russia can'tbe bullied by western powers and they cannot take control of russian resources.
This comment gives insight into mind of superpower and its view towards other superpower.
"Needless to say, poverty is not the only cause of terrorism. North Korea and Cuba are poor countries, but they have not produced terrorists. Those who attacked the U.S. in 2001 were far from being poor."
my comments;
This directly criticises the US diplomacy and atittude towards Islamist extremism and their repurcussions on US.
"It is perfectly obvious that not a single serious issue in the modern world can be resolved without Russia. We don't need confrontation with the U.S., or with the West, or the East."
my comments:
this emphaises that Russia is still a superpower and also that it needs to be consulted while making any decision about world order. At this juncture, I would like to draw attention to recent veto exercised by Russia and China while passing an motion on myanmmar government by UN Secuirty council. But alongwith that, in the same breath, It also says that it does not want any confrontation with any of the western powers. This will be further discussed below.
"It is abundantly clear that there is no alternative to a multi-polar world with major centers of influence (the U.S., European Union, Russia, China, and India). "
my comments:
This sentence alongwith other things in the same para makes abundantly clear the effect of growing influence of India on the world forum...(catering self ego...)
The following para makes clear that the western policies will lead to confrontations with many nations and that Russia is more than ready to fill the gap created by US in managing the wolrd affairs(read natural resources). Russia has at the appropriate time made comments about their doctrine. It tries to create a passionate image about them in the minds of the anti-western powers while also making clear that national interests are most vital to them and they would be protected at any costs.
Further in the interview, General says that growing influence of NATO over soviet era nations like Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgystan will not be tolerated and that the influence will be termed as infringements by western powers over their turf. it also further says that, Russia may retaliate for the same. Recent actions by Russia over fuel supply should corroborate the doctrine of russia. It also implies that though the doctrine is in public realm now, but it already is in works by the kremlin and effectively pursuing it also.
"Secondly, the use of nuclear arms and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction continue to threaten Russia. The nuclear weapons of all major nuclear powers are ultimately designed to be used against Russia, whether we want to admit it or not. In this context, the task of curbing a potential aggressor by means of a strategic nuclear deterrent is becoming more important than in the past."
my comments:
According to me, these are the strongest ever comments made by any nation ever. It tries to imply that all the other nations other than Russia or Russian confederates are enemies of Russia and Russia could use nuclear weapons against any of those. This shows the strong hand of Russia.
Further replying to "possible first strike using of nuclear arms", it justifies that doctrine very convincingly. It clarifies that such weapons cannot used as tactical weapons to neutralize opponents like those in chechnya or any other enemy using proxy wars but will be used with utmost care and while it is attacked by conventional forces on all fronts. it further says that it could not such an conventional force so as to effectively guard its huge expanse. This it says needs an backing of effective nuclear deterrent.
This comment also shows why though western powers emphasize on non-proliferation but try to advance their own weapons. US is already in the process of modernizing its nuclear weaponry and he contracts for the Trident nuclear systems have been already awarded. UK also is in the same process.
Let anybody profess anything about disarmament the nuclear weapons are here to stay till it has not destroyed all of us.
Further Analysis:
What does this document reveal more? we need to analyse this from a situation where in future when all the major powers are locked into confrontation with other nations and next big war is looming over heads, who will side with whom!!??
Yes!!!! that canbe predicted.....Lets discuss that in our next post..........