Thursday, July 21, 2011

Who is providing arms to Gaddafi.. er Kadhafi.. em Qaddafi..(whatever it is)..!!??

Who is providing arms to Libya's Gaddafi.
Here we will not discuss whether Gaddafi is right or wrong... correct or incorrect. already there is huge confusion about the right spell to his name...(pun intended)

We know that NATO and other western countries have been providing support to rebels in Libya (military and non-military).

The rebellion is on since February 15, 2011 with peaceful protests and then culminating into full fledged armed rebellion.

Libya - A small african country with population of around 6.4 Million, GDP of around $74 Billion with Per Capita Income of around $11k.

Libya has armed forces comprising of Libyan Army, Air Force and Libyan Navy.

The total armed forces are around 76,000. Around 50,000 Army, 22,000 Air Force and 8,000 Navy. Considering this, it seems the effective fighting personnel is not more than 70-75 thousand. lets not consider role of navy in the current conflict.

The wikipedia mentions that Libya had around 2000 tanks, 1200 armoured vehicles, 450 SP artillery pieces, 650 towed artillery pieces and 830 multiple rocket launchers. 500 mortars and 450 missiles.

Airforce consists of 450 combat aircrafts (which has been rendered almost useless by Coalition strikes) and 1650 Surface to air missiles. Most of the weaponry is quite old and questionable about its ability to be used in war.

The armed conflict has left air force decapitated that means around 20,000 forces are out. what remains is army of around 50,000 personnel. 2,000 tanks means atleast 5,000 forces used there. which means on ground fighting force is about 45,ooo. In this conflict Gaddafi has lost 2,000 personnel (including death, capture and defections).

Many of the tanks have been destroyed, multi rocket launchers destroyed. hundreds of armoured vehicles destroyed.

On February 26, UN security council imposed an arms embargo on Libya, travel bans and assets freeze on Gaddafi regime. UN on March 17, 2011 passed resolution for no-fly zone over libya to be implemented by France and UK. NATO started intervening militarily around end of March 2011.

Despite all this, War seems to be far from over. Gaddafi forces seem to be gaining ground. At one place rebels gain ground at another place, its the pro-Gaddafi forces gaining ground.

where does this capacity come from? for this we have to look little backwards.

1) US had planned arms sale worth of $ 77 Million in 2010.

2) European nations had arms sale worth of $ 470 Million in 2009 alone.

3) In February 2010, Russia had entered into arms deal with Libya for Euro 1.3 Billion ($ 1.8 Billion).

4) The article here quotes various deals that libya was seeking. It also clearly mentions that in the event of civil war being dragged, do not surprised that these old deals will be revived and ways found to circumvent the arms embargo.

One of the NATO commander had clearly mentioned that they would not be targeting Gaddafi directly but would target the other related areas and personnel.

Does this means that these countries want the conflict to drag on so that their own agendas are fulfilled? Considering that libya having such a small force and conflict continuing for more than 4 months now, have these embargoes already breached? Can somebody confirm that?

India had a limited conflict with Pakistan in 1999 when pakistan intruded into Indian territory at kargil. The war that India waged did cost INR 15 Crore per day (i.e. around $ 4 million Per Day). The total cost of that war was INR 3,500 crores (i.e. around $ 800 Million). during that period around 500 soldiers dead and around 1300 wounded.

Considering these facts, does Gaddafi have the capability to engage a four month war across the country? or put otherwise, from where does the Gaddafi get the resources to continue this war?


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Anonymous said...

What light of day isn't today?